FRED Macro Data

ECB CISS: Euro Area

Euro area systemic stress

0.012Oct 15, 2026Score 10/10 · Healthy

Low stress in the euro financial system: the 5-day average is 0.012 (the red line is 0.40; in November 2008 it reached 0.94).

The European Central Bank's systemic stress index (CISS) combines stocks, bonds, currencies, banks and money markets, and weighs more when several markets are stressed at once. It runs from 0 to 1: in November 2008 it reached 0.94.

Source: ECB, NEW CISS (CISS.D.U2.Z0Z.4F.EC.SS_CIN.IDX)

Indicators: 14
Score: 7/10

World tab score

7/10Caution

worst block 7.00

There is localized stress in French debt; stress gauges for Europe and the rest of the world remain calm.

The 3 scored blocks and 2 that are not counted

RegionsIs there stress in advanced or emerging economies?8 EuropeIs there system-wide stress in the euro area or the UK?10 Sovereign debtAre markets doubting France or Italy?7 Central banksnot counted in the score9.6 10-year bondsnot counted in the score6.7

What would turn it red

Advanced-economy stress (5-day average) above 2, emerging-market stress above 0.25, or the euro-area or UK CISS above 0.40. Today: advanced −0.36, emerging −0.53, euro area 0.012 and UK 0.007.
Two risk premiums red at once (France more than 1 point over Germany, Italy more than 2.5) or one in the extreme zone (France more than 2, Italy more than 5). Today: France 1.008 and Italy 0.800. Already red: France.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The spark marks where it is today.

ECB CISS: Euro Area

-0.001

idx

-0.007

idx

-0.023

idx

-0.002

idx

-0.007

idx

-0.052

idx

Last

0.01 idx

0.01 idx

All-time: 0.001 – 0.935 idx · since Jan 80 · now at 1% of that range

ECB CISS: Euro Area stands at 0.012idx (Oct 15, 2026), down from 0.013idx on Oct 14, 2026. Since Oct 15, 2025 it has moved -0.052 idx.

Loading chart…

Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: ECB, NEW CISS — average of the last 5 readings

World Indicators

Sort:

Indicator	Last	Previous	Change	Highest	Lowest	Range %	Gauge	Date
OFR FSI: Other Advanced Economies idx	-0.36	-0.3	-0.06idx · 1D	13.09	-2.63	14%	—	Oct 26
OFR FSI: Emerging Markets idx	-0.53	-0.54	+0.01idx · 1D	2.93	-1.08	14%	—	Oct 26
ECB CISS: Euro Area idx	0.012	0.013	-0.001idx · 1D	0.935	0.001	1%	—	Oct 26
ECB CISS: United Kingdom idx	0.007	0.009	-0.002idx · 1D	0.799	0	1%	—	Oct 26
ECB Balance Sheet €B	5,943.9	5,947.8	-3.9-0.1% · 1W	8,836	667.6	65%	—	Oct 26
BOJ Balance Sheet ¥B▼ 2020	625,025.3	644,662	-19,636.7-3.0% · 1M	764,811.5	68,006.4	80%	—	Sep 26
BOE Balance Sheet £B▲ 2025	815.1	811.4	+3.7+0.5% · 1W	1,119.4	763	15%	—	Oct 26
PBOC Balance Sheet ¥B (CNY)	50,500.3	49,856.7	+643.6+1.3% · 1M	50,500.3	3,444.4	100%	—	Sep 26
Global Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ+BOE+PBOC) $B	25,094.6	25,021.5	+73.1+0.3% · 1M	28,453	24,372.3	18%	—	Oct 26
Germany 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 2009	3.47	3.19	+0.28% · 1M	10.8	-0.7	36%	—	Sep 26
Japan 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 1996	3.05	2.94	+0.11% · 1M	8	-0.3	40%	—	Sep 26
UK 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 2007	5.24	4.99	+0.25% · 1M	16.3	0.2	31%	—	Sep 26
France 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 2008	4.48	4.03	+0.45% · 1M	17.3	-0.3	27%	—	Sep 26
Italy 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 2023	3.99	3.88	+0.11% · 1M	14.4	0.6	25%	—	Aug 26

The 14 indicators

Regions: Is there stress in advanced or emerging economies?

score 8 · Healthy

Stress in other advanced economies

OFR FSI: Other Advanced Economies

8/10Healthy

−0.365-day average to Oct 14, 2026

Low stress in advanced economies outside the US: the 5-day average is −0.36 (the red line is 2.00; in October 2008 it reached 13).

See scale and last 10 years

The part of the OFR Financial Stress Index (the US Treasury's Office of Financial Research) that comes from markets in rich economies outside the US, mainly the euro area and Japan: credit, stocks, bank funding, safe havens and volatility. Zero is average stress; in October 2008 it reached 13.

Measures: Contribution of advanced economies outside the US to the OFR stress index, average of the last 5 readings.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Contribution of advanced economies outside the US to the OFR stress index, average of the last 5 readings
10	−2.00 or less
9	−1.99 to −1.00
8	−0.99 to 0.00
7	0.01 to 0.50
6	0.51 to 1.00
5	1.01 to 2.00
4	2.01 to 3.00
3	3.01 to 5.00
2	5.01 to 8.00
1	more than 8.00

OFR, Financial Stress Index (Other advanced economies)

Emerging-market stress

OFR FSI: Emerging Markets

9/10Healthy

−0.535-day average to Oct 14, 2026

Low stress in emerging markets: the 5-day average is −0.53 (the red line is 0.25; in October 2008 it reached 2.93).

See scale and last 10 years

The part of the same OFR index that comes from emerging markets: what their governments and companies pay on dollar debt, their stocks and their volatility. It is scored separately because its scale is much smaller: added to rich economies, it gets lost.

Measures: Contribution of emerging markets to the OFR stress index, average of the last 5 readings.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Contribution of emerging markets to the OFR stress index, average of the last 5 readings
10	−0.60 or less
9	−0.59 to −0.25
8	−0.24 to 0.00
7	0.01 to 0.05
6	0.06 to 0.10
5	0.11 to 0.25
4	0.26 to 0.50
3	0.51 to 1.00
2	1.01 to 1.50
1	more than 1.50

OFR, Financial Stress Index (Emerging markets)

Europe: Is there system-wide stress in the euro area or the UK?

score 10 · Healthy

Euro area systemic stress

ECB CISS: Euro Area

10/10Healthy

0.0125-day average to Oct 15, 2026

Low stress in the euro financial system: the 5-day average is 0.012 (the red line is 0.40; in November 2008 it reached 0.94).

See scale and last 10 years

Measures: Euro area NEW CISS, average of the last 5 readings.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Euro area NEW CISS, average of the last 5 readings
10	0.030 or less
9	0.031 to 0.070
8	0.071 to 0.150
7	0.151 to 0.200
6	0.201 to 0.250
5	0.251 to 0.400
4	0.401 to 0.500
3	0.501 to 0.650
2	0.651 to 0.800
1	more than 0.800

ECB, NEW CISS (CISS.D.U2.Z0Z.4F.EC.SS_CIN.IDX)

UK systemic stress

ECB CISS: United Kingdom

10/10Healthy

0.0075-day average to Oct 15, 2026

Low stress in the UK financial system: the 5-day average is 0.007 (the red line is 0.40; in December 2008 it reached 0.77).

See scale and last 10 years

The same ECB index computed for the UK. In September 2022, during the gilt crisis, it topped 0.6 and the Bank of England had to step in to rescue pension funds.

Measures: UK NEW CISS, average of the last 5 readings.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	UK NEW CISS, average of the last 5 readings
10	0.030 or less
9	0.031 to 0.070
8	0.071 to 0.150
7	0.151 to 0.200
6	0.201 to 0.250
5	0.251 to 0.400
4	0.401 to 0.500
3	0.501 to 0.650
2	0.651 to 0.800
1	more than 0.800

ECB, NEW CISS (CISS.D.GB.Z0Z.4F.EC.SS_CIN.IDX)

Sovereign debt: Are markets doubting France or Italy?

score 7 · Caution

French risk premium

France 10Y Bond Yield

4/10Alert

4.48%Sep 2026 · spread 1.008 pts

France pays 1.008 pts more than Germany on 10-year debt (4.48% vs. 3.47%): above its red line of 1.00.

See scale and last 10 years

What France pays over Germany on 10-year debt. In 1999–2019 it averaged 0.3 pts. Above 1 point is red: until 2026 it had only happened at the worst of the euro crisis, from November 2011 to July 2012.

Measures: French − German 10-year yield, monthly average (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	French − German 10-year yield, monthly average (pts)
10	0.150 or less
9	0.151 to 0.250
8	0.251 to 0.400
7	0.401 to 0.500
6	0.501 to 0.650
5	0.651 to 1.000
4	1.001 to 1.250
3	1.251 to 1.500
2	1.501 to 2.000
1	more than 2.000

OECD (IRLTLT01FRM156N, IRLTLT01DEM156N) · FRED

Italian risk premium

Italy 10Y Bond Yield

8/10Healthy

3.99%Aug 2026 · spread 0.800 pts

Italy pays 0.800 pts more than Germany on 10-year debt (3.99% vs. 3.19%).

See scale and last 10 years

What Italy pays over Germany on 10-year debt: the classic euro-crisis gauge. It has its own cuts because it usually pays more than France: it is red above 2.5 points. In November 2011 it reached 5.2.

Measures: Italian − German 10-year yield, monthly average (pts).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Italian − German 10-year yield, monthly average (pts)
10	0.500 or less
9	0.501 to 0.750
8	0.751 to 1.000
7	1.001 to 1.250
6	1.251 to 1.500
5	1.501 to 2.500
4	2.501 to 3.000
3	3.001 to 4.000
2	4.001 to 5.000
1	more than 5.000

OECD (IRLTLT01ITM156N, IRLTLT01DEM156N) · FRED

Central banks: Tightening or easing?

average 9.6 · not counted in the score

ECB balance sheet

ECB Balance Sheet

10/10Healthy

€5.94Tweek of Oct 9, 2026

The ECB balance sheet is down 4.3% from a year ago, at €5,944B: it is draining money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything the European Central Bank holds. It shrinks as bonds mature and banks repay loans.

Measures: ECB balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.0 to 5.0	−5.0 to −0.1
9	5.1 to 10.0	−10.0 to −5.1
8	10.1 to 15.0	−15.0 to −10.1
7	15.1 to 20.0	−20.0 to −15.1
6	20.1 to 25.0	−25.0 to −20.1
5	25.1 to 30.0	−30.0 to −25.1
4	30.1 to 40.0	−40.0 to −30.1
3	40.1 to 55.0	−55.0 to −40.1
2	55.1 to 75.0	−75.0 to −55.1
1	more than 75.0	less than −75.0

ECB (ECBASSETSW) · FRED

Bank of Japan balance sheet

BOJ Balance Sheet

8/10Healthy▼ below normal

¥625TSep 2026

The Bank of Japan balance sheet is down 10.2% from a year ago, at 625 trillion yen: it is draining money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything the Bank of Japan holds. It bought more bonds than anyone; since 2024 it is buying less and less.

Measures: BOJ balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.0 to 5.0	−5.0 to −0.1
9	5.1 to 10.0	−10.0 to −5.1
8	10.1 to 15.0	−15.0 to −10.1
7	15.1 to 20.0	−20.0 to −15.1
6	20.1 to 25.0	−25.0 to −20.1
5	25.1 to 30.0	−30.0 to −25.1
4	30.1 to 40.0	−40.0 to −30.1
3	40.1 to 55.0	−55.0 to −40.1
2	55.1 to 75.0	−75.0 to −55.1
1	more than 75.0	less than −75.0

Bank of Japan (JPNASSETS) · FRED

Bank of England balance sheet

BOE Balance Sheet

10/10Healthy

£815.1Bweek of Oct 7, 2026

The Bank of England balance sheet is up 0.4% from a year ago, at £815B: it is adding money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything the Bank of England holds. It has been actively selling bonds since 2022.

Measures: BoE balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Jul 2021last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.0 to 5.0	−5.0 to −0.1
9	5.1 to 10.0	−10.0 to −5.1
8	10.1 to 15.0	−15.0 to −10.1
7	15.1 to 20.0	−20.0 to −15.1
6	20.1 to 25.0	−25.0 to −20.1
5	25.1 to 30.0	−30.0 to −25.1
4	30.1 to 40.0	−40.0 to −30.1
3	40.1 to 55.0	−55.0 to −40.1
2	55.1 to 75.0	−75.0 to −55.1
1	more than 75.0	less than −75.0

Bank of England · arturillo.com API

PBOC balance sheet

PBOC Balance Sheet

10/10Healthy

¥50.5T CNYSep 2026

The PBOC balance sheet is up 7.1% from a year ago, at 51 trillion yuan: it is adding money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything China's central bank holds. It almost always grows; a slowdown is the unusual part.

Measures: PBOC balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	5.0 to 10.0	2.0 to 4.9
9	10.1 to 15.0	−1.0 to 1.9
8	15.1 to 20.0	−4.0 to −1.1
7	20.1 to 25.0	−7.0 to −4.1
6	25.1 to 30.0	−10.0 to −7.1
5	30.1 to 35.0	−13.0 to −10.1
4	35.1 to 45.0	−17.0 to −13.1
3	45.1 to 60.0	−21.0 to −17.1
2	60.1 to 80.0	−25.0 to −21.1
1	more than 80.0	less than −25.0

PBOC · arturillo.com API

Global liquidity

Global Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ+BOE+PBOC)

10/10Healthy

$25.09TOct 2026

The five big central banks hold $25.09T, 1.0% more than a year ago (in dollars).

See scale and last 10 years

The Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE and PBOC balance sheets added up in dollars. It also moves with exchange rates. Data start in 2022.

Measures: Global liquidity in dollars vs. a year ago (%).

Apr 2023last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	3.0 to 6.0	0.0 to 2.9
9	6.1 to 9.0	−3.0 to −0.1
8	9.1 to 12.0	−6.0 to −3.1
7	12.1 to 15.0	−9.0 to −6.1
6	15.1 to 18.0	−12.0 to −9.1
5	18.1 to 21.0	−15.0 to −12.1
4	21.1 to 25.0	−19.0 to −15.1
3	25.1 to 29.0	−23.0 to −19.1
2	29.1 to 33.0	−27.0 to −23.1
1	more than 33.0	less than −27.0

Sum of the five central banks in dollars · arturillo.com API

10-year bonds: Are they moving fast?

average 6.7 · not counted in the score

German 10-year bund

Germany 10Y Bond Yield

7/10Caution▲ above normal

3.47%Sep 2026 · +0.78 pts over a year

The German 10-year yields 3.47%, 0.78 pts higher than a year ago, the highest since Jun 2009.

See scale and last 10 years

Europe's benchmark. Speed is what hurts: a big rise in a year makes debt across the continent pricier at once.

Measures: Change in the German 10-year over a year (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.00 to 0.30	−0.30 to −0.01
9	0.31 to 0.50	−0.50 to −0.31
8	0.51 to 0.75	−0.75 to −0.51
7	0.76 to 1.00	−1.00 to −0.76
6	1.01 to 1.25	−1.25 to −1.01
5	1.26 to 1.50	−1.50 to −1.26
4	1.51 to 1.90	−1.90 to −1.51
3	1.91 to 2.40	−2.40 to −1.91
2	2.41 to 3.20	−3.20 to −2.41
1	more than 3.20	less than −3.20

OECD (IRLTLT01DEM156N) · FRED

Japan 10-year JGB

Japan 10Y Bond Yield

5/10Caution▲ above normal

3.05%Sep 2026 · +1.41 pts over a year

The Japanese 10-year yields 3.05%, 1.41 pts higher than a year ago, the highest since Aug 1996.

See scale and last 10 years

Japan kept rates near zero for decades and its investors bought bonds worldwide. If its yield rises fast, that money heads home and squeezes other markets.

Measures: Change in the JGB 10-year over a year (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.00 to 0.30	−0.30 to −0.01
9	0.31 to 0.50	−0.50 to −0.31
8	0.51 to 0.75	−0.75 to −0.51
7	0.76 to 1.00	−1.00 to −0.76
6	1.01 to 1.25	−1.25 to −1.01
5	1.26 to 1.50	−1.50 to −1.26
4	1.51 to 1.90	−1.90 to −1.51
3	1.91 to 2.40	−2.40 to −1.91
2	2.41 to 3.20	−3.20 to −2.41
1	more than 3.20	less than −3.20

OECD (IRLTLT01JPM156N) · FRED

UK 10-year gilt

UK 10Y Bond Yield

8/10Healthy▲ above normal

5.24%Sep 2026 · +0.55 pts over a year

The UK 10-year yields 5.24%, 0.55 pts higher than a year ago, the highest since Jul 2007.

See scale and last 10 years

The gilt. In September 2022 it rose so fast that the Bank of England had to step in to rescue pension funds.

Measures: Change in the UK 10-year over a year (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.00 to 0.30	−0.30 to −0.01
9	0.31 to 0.50	−0.50 to −0.31
8	0.51 to 0.75	−0.75 to −0.51
7	0.76 to 1.00	−1.00 to −0.76
6	1.01 to 1.25	−1.25 to −1.01
5	1.26 to 1.50	−1.50 to −1.26
4	1.51 to 1.90	−1.90 to −1.51
3	1.91 to 2.40	−2.40 to −1.91
2	2.41 to 3.20	−3.20 to −2.41
1	more than 3.20	less than −3.20

OECD (IRLTLT01GBM156N) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 2000

Each month's score, with today's rules and cuts and today's revised data. It starts in 2000, with the OFR stress index. Each month uses its last reading, like today's score: a scare that fades before month-end looks milder than on its worst day. Gray bands are US recessions.

AOct 2008 · Lehman collapse: advanced-economy stress tops 12 and the euro CISS 0.9
BNov 2011 · euro crisis: Italy pays 5.2 points more than Germany and France 1.5
CAug 2015 · China devalues the yuan: emerging-market stress crosses its red line
DJun 2016 · Brexit referendum: the euro CISS tops 0.4
EMar 2020 · COVID: emerging-market stress tops 1 and the euro CISS 0.6
FSep 2022 · gilt crisis: the UK CISS tops 0.6 and the Bank of England has to step in
GToday · score 7: there is localized stress in French debt; stress gauges for Europe and the rest of the world remain calm

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. The stress indexes use the average of their last five published readings; the risk premiums, the country's monthly average 10-year yield minus Germany's for the same month.
Regions takes the lower score of advanced and emerging economies. Europe takes the lower euro-area or UK score.
Sovereign debt scores 10 with no red spreads, 7 with one, and 4 with two or one extreme spread: France more than 2 points over Germany or Italy more than 5.
World takes the lowest block score. Central banks and 10-year bonds are shown but not counted.
An indicator without data is left out; if two of the six are missing, there is no new score and the last good one stays up.

Deliberate choices

It measures financial stress, not whether central banks are tightening or easing. Their balance sheets respond to crises, often late: in March 2020 the ECB's was up 8% on the year (score 9) and the big jump came at year-end (+50%, score 3), with the worst already over. So they are shown apart, as the response to stress.
German, Japanese and UK 10-year bonds are not counted either: a yield falling fast can be a flight to safety in the middle of a crisis, not calm. Real stress is already captured by the OFR and ECB indexes.
Advanced and emerging economies are scored separately and the worse one rules: added up, emerging-market stress gets diluted. In August 2015 it crossed its red line (0.32) while the sum stayed at an ordinary reading (its 69th percentile).
It overlaps with Markets: the OFR index is a global factor and its advanced-economy part moves almost like the US part (0.90 correlation in monthly averages). World answers a different question: whether stress also reaches beyond the US, as in 2008.
The indexes are official (OFR and ECB), but the cuts are arturillo.com's own: each red line sits near its 90th percentile. Neither the OFR nor the ECB endorses this 1–10 scale.
It describes stress outside the US from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: Office of Financial Research (US Treasury): Financial Stress Index. European Central Bank: NEW CISS. OECD via FRED: 10-year bonds. ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and PBOC: balance sheets, via FRED and arturillo.com. US recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.