Japan 10Y Bond Yield

Japan 10-year JGB

2.94%Aug 2026Score 5/10 · Caution

The Japanese 10-year yields 2.94%, 1.34 pts higher than a year ago, the highest since Aug 1996.

Japan kept rates near zero for decades and its investors bought bonds worldwide. If its yield rises fast, that money heads home and squeezes other markets.

Source: OCDE (IRLTLT01JPM156N) · FRED IRLTLT01JPM156N

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World tab score

8/10Healthy

average 8.50

There is no serious stress outside the US. Moving the most: Japan 10-year JGB, French risk premium.

The 2 blocks

Central banksTightening or easing?9.6 Foreign bondsIs there stress in their bonds?7.4

What would turn it red

Two of the five bonds red at once: the German, Japanese or UK 10-year moving more than 1.5 points in a year; France paying more than 0.9 points over Germany, or Italy more than 2.5. Already close: Japan 10-year JGB (1.34), French risk premium (0.82).
A central bank shrinking or growing its balance sheet more than 30% in a year: it only happens in crises or massive bond buying.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Japan 10Y Bond Yield

+0.15

%

+0.29

%

+0.83

%

+1.34

%

▲Highest since Sep 1, 1996(29y 11m)

Last

2.94 %

2.79 %

All-time: -0.3 – 8 % · since Jan 89 · now at 39% of that range

Japan 10Y Bond Yield stands at 2.94% (Aug 1, 2026), up from 2.79% on Jul 1, 2026. Since Aug 1, 2025 it has moved +1.34 pp.

Loading chart…

Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

ECB Balance Sheet €B5,943.95,947.8-3.9-0.1% · 1W8,836667.665%—Oct 26

BOJ Balance Sheet ¥B▼ 2020625,025.3644,662-19,636.7-3.0% · 1M764,811.568,006.480%—Sep 26

BOE Balance Sheet £B▲ 2025815.1811.4+3.7+0.5% · 1W1,119.476315%—Oct 26

PBOC Balance Sheet ¥B (CNY)50,500.349,856.7+643.6+1.3% · 1M50,500.33,444.4100%—Sep 26

Global Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ+BOE+PBOC) $B25,084.525,021.5+63+0.3% · 1M28,45324,372.318%—Oct 26

Germany 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 20113.183.07+0.11% · 1M10.8-0.733%—Aug 26

Japan 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 19962.942.79+0.15% · 1M8-0.339%—Aug 26

UK 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 20084.994.93+0.06% · 1M16.30.230%—Aug 26

France 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 200843.85+0.15% · 1M17.3-0.325%—Aug 26

Italy 10Y Bond Yield %▲ 20233.993.88+0.11% · 1M14.40.625%—Aug 26

The 10 indicators

Central banks: Tightening or easing?

average 9.6 · Healthy

ECB balance sheet

ECB Balance Sheet

10/10Healthy

€5.94Tweek of Oct 9, 2026

The ECB balance sheet is down 4.3% from a year ago, at €5,944B: it is draining money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything the European Central Bank holds. It shrinks as bonds mature and banks repay loans.

Measures: ECB balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.0 to 5.0	−5.0 to −0.1
9	5.1 to 10.0	−10.0 to −5.1
8	10.1 to 15.0	−15.0 to −10.1
7	15.1 to 20.0	−20.0 to −15.1
6	20.1 to 25.0	−25.0 to −20.1
5	25.1 to 30.0	−30.0 to −25.1
4	30.1 to 40.0	−40.0 to −30.1
3	40.1 to 55.0	−55.0 to −40.1
2	55.1 to 75.0	−75.0 to −55.1
1	more than 75.0	less than −75.0

BCE (ECBASSETSW) · FRED

Bank of Japan balance sheet

BOJ Balance Sheet

8/10Healthy▼ below normal

¥625TSep 2026

The Bank of Japan balance sheet is down 10.2% from a year ago, at 625 trillion yen: it is draining money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything the Bank of Japan holds. It bought more bonds than anyone; since 2024 it is buying less and less.

Measures: BOJ balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.0 to 5.0	−5.0 to −0.1
9	5.1 to 10.0	−10.0 to −5.1
8	10.1 to 15.0	−15.0 to −10.1
7	15.1 to 20.0	−20.0 to −15.1
6	20.1 to 25.0	−25.0 to −20.1
5	25.1 to 30.0	−30.0 to −25.1
4	30.1 to 40.0	−40.0 to −30.1
3	40.1 to 55.0	−55.0 to −40.1
2	55.1 to 75.0	−75.0 to −55.1
1	more than 75.0	less than −75.0

Banco de Japón (JPNASSETS) · FRED

Bank of England balance sheet

BOE Balance Sheet

10/10Healthy

£815.1Bweek of Oct 7, 2026

The Bank of England balance sheet is up 0.4% from a year ago, at £815B: it is adding money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything the Bank of England holds. It has been actively selling bonds since 2022.

Measures: BoE balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Jul 2021last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.0 to 5.0	−5.0 to −0.1
9	5.1 to 10.0	−10.0 to −5.1
8	10.1 to 15.0	−15.0 to −10.1
7	15.1 to 20.0	−20.0 to −15.1
6	20.1 to 25.0	−25.0 to −20.1
5	25.1 to 30.0	−30.0 to −25.1
4	30.1 to 40.0	−40.0 to −30.1
3	40.1 to 55.0	−55.0 to −40.1
2	55.1 to 75.0	−75.0 to −55.1
1	more than 75.0	less than −75.0

Banco de Inglaterra · API de arturillo.com · FRED

PBOC balance sheet

PBOC Balance Sheet

10/10Healthy

¥50.5T CNYSep 2026

The PBOC balance sheet is up 7.1% from a year ago, at 51 trillion yuan: it is adding money.

See scale and last 10 years

Everything China's central bank holds. It almost always grows; a slowdown is the unusual part.

Measures: PBOC balance sheet vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	5.0 to 10.0	2.0 to 4.9
9	10.1 to 15.0	−1.0 to 1.9
8	15.1 to 20.0	−4.0 to −1.1
7	20.1 to 25.0	−7.0 to −4.1
6	25.1 to 30.0	−10.0 to −7.1
5	30.1 to 35.0	−13.0 to −10.1
4	35.1 to 45.0	−17.0 to −13.1
3	45.1 to 60.0	−21.0 to −17.1
2	60.1 to 80.0	−25.0 to −21.1
1	more than 80.0	less than −25.0

Banco Popular de China · API de arturillo.com · FRED

Global liquidity

Global Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ+BOE+PBOC)

10/10Healthy

$25.08TOct 2026

The five big central banks hold $25.08T, 1.0% more than a year ago (in dollars).

See scale and last 10 years

The Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE and PBOC balance sheets added up in dollars. It also moves with exchange rates. Data start in 2022.

Measures: Global liquidity in dollars vs. a year ago (%).

Apr 2023last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	3.0 to 6.0	0.0 to 2.9
9	6.1 to 9.0	−3.0 to −0.1
8	9.1 to 12.0	−6.0 to −3.1
7	12.1 to 15.0	−9.0 to −6.1
6	15.1 to 18.0	−12.0 to −9.1
5	18.1 to 21.0	−15.0 to −12.1
4	21.1 to 25.0	−19.0 to −15.1
3	25.1 to 29.0	−23.0 to −19.1
2	29.1 to 33.0	−27.0 to −23.1
1	more than 33.0	less than −27.0

Suma de los cinco bancos centrales en dólares · API de arturillo.com · FRED

Foreign bonds: Is there stress in their bonds?

average 7.4 · Caution

German 10-year bund

Germany 10Y Bond Yield

8/10Healthy▲ above normal

3.18%Aug 2026 · +0.51 pts over a year

The German 10-year yields 3.18%, 0.51 pts higher than a year ago, the highest since Apr 2011.

See scale and last 10 years

Europe's benchmark. Speed is what hurts: a big rise in a year makes debt across the continent pricier at once.

Measures: Change in the German 10-year over a year (pts).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.00 to 0.30	−0.30 to −0.01
9	0.31 to 0.50	−0.50 to −0.31
8	0.51 to 0.75	−0.75 to −0.51
7	0.76 to 1.00	−1.00 to −0.76
6	1.01 to 1.25	−1.25 to −1.01
5	1.26 to 1.50	−1.50 to −1.26
4	1.51 to 1.90	−1.90 to −1.51
3	1.91 to 2.40	−2.40 to −1.91
2	2.41 to 3.20	−3.20 to −2.41
1	more than 3.20	less than −3.20

OCDE (IRLTLT01DEM156N) · FRED

Japan 10-year JGB

Japan 10Y Bond Yield

5/10Caution▲ above normal

2.94%Aug 2026 · +1.34 pts over a year

The Japanese 10-year yields 2.94%, 1.34 pts higher than a year ago, the highest since Aug 1996.

See scale and last 10 years

Japan kept rates near zero for decades and its investors bought bonds worldwide. If its yield rises fast, that money heads home and squeezes other markets.

Measures: Change in the JGB 10-year over a year (pts).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.00 to 0.30	−0.30 to −0.01
9	0.31 to 0.50	−0.50 to −0.31
8	0.51 to 0.75	−0.75 to −0.51
7	0.76 to 1.00	−1.00 to −0.76
6	1.01 to 1.25	−1.25 to −1.01
5	1.26 to 1.50	−1.50 to −1.26
4	1.51 to 1.90	−1.90 to −1.51
3	1.91 to 2.40	−2.40 to −1.91
2	2.41 to 3.20	−3.20 to −2.41
1	more than 3.20	less than −3.20

OCDE (IRLTLT01JPM156N) · FRED

UK 10-year gilt

UK 10Y Bond Yield

9/10Healthy▲ above normal

4.99%Aug 2026 · +0.35 pts over a year

The UK 10-year yields 4.99%, 0.35 pts higher than a year ago, the highest since Jul 2008.

See scale and last 10 years

The gilt. In September 2022 it rose so fast that the Bank of England had to step in to rescue pension funds.

Measures: Change in the UK 10-year over a year (pts).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.00 to 0.30	−0.30 to −0.01
9	0.31 to 0.50	−0.50 to −0.31
8	0.51 to 0.75	−0.75 to −0.51
7	0.76 to 1.00	−1.00 to −0.76
6	1.01 to 1.25	−1.25 to −1.01
5	1.26 to 1.50	−1.50 to −1.26
4	1.51 to 1.90	−1.90 to −1.51
3	1.91 to 2.40	−2.40 to −1.91
2	2.41 to 3.20	−3.20 to −2.41
1	more than 3.20	less than −3.20

OCDE (IRLTLT01GBM156N) · FRED

French risk premium

France 10Y Bond Yield

5/10Caution

4.00%Aug 2026 · spread 0.82 pts

France pays 0.82 pts more than Germany on 10-year debt (4.00% vs. 3.18%).

See scale and last 10 years

What France pays over Germany on 10-year debt. In 1999–2019 it averaged 0.3 pts; a spike means markets doubt French finances.

Measures: French − German 10-year yield (pts).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	French − German 10-year yield (pts)
10	0.40 or less
9	0.41 to 0.50
8	0.51 to 0.60
7	0.61 to 0.70
6	0.71 to 0.80
5	0.81 to 0.90
4	0.91 to 1.00
3	1.01 to 1.30
2	1.31 to 1.80
1	more than 1.80

OCDE (IRLTLT01FRM156N, IRLTLT01DEM156N) · FRED

Italian risk premium

Italy 10Y Bond Yield

10/10Healthy

3.99%Aug 2026 · spread 0.81 pts

Italy pays 0.81 pts more than Germany on 10-year debt (3.99% vs. 3.18%).

See scale and last 10 years

What Italy pays over Germany on 10-year debt: the classic euro-crisis gauge. In November 2011 it topped 5 points.

Measures: Italian − German 10-year yield (pts).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Italian − German 10-year yield (pts)
10	1.00 or less
9	1.01 to 1.25
8	1.26 to 1.50
7	1.51 to 1.75
6	1.76 to 2.00
5	2.01 to 2.50
4	2.51 to 3.00
3	3.01 to 4.00
2	4.01 to 5.00
1	more than 5.00

OCDE (IRLTLT01ITM156N, IRLTLT01DEM156N) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1999

Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds. It starts in 1999, with the euro: before that, what France and Italy paid over Germany reflected currency risk, not debt risk. The Bank of England balance sheet starts in 2020 and global liquidity in 2022. Gray bands are US recessions.

A2008 · financial crisis: the ECB grows its balance sheet 39% in a year to prop up banks
BNov 2011 · euro crisis: Italy pays 7% on 10-year debt, 5.2 points more than Germany
CJul 2012 · Draghi pledges to do "whatever it takes" for the euro and spreads start to fall
D2013–14 · the Bank of Japan launches its massive bond buying: its balance sheet grows 34% in a year
E2020 · COVID: the ECB grows its balance sheet 50% in a year
FSep–Oct 2022 · gilt crisis: the UK 10-year pays 3 points more than a year earlier and the Bank of England has to step in
GToday · score 8: there is no serious stress outside the us

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. For balance sheets and bond yields, speed matters: the one-year change, up or down. For France and Italy, what they pay over Germany.
Each block is the average of its indicators and the score is the average of the two blocks, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
Debt rules. If two of the five bonds are red at once, the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

It is separate from Markets on purpose: what happens abroad does not say whether US markets are calm. Inside Markets it made that score greener than the US data said.
The Bank of England and PBOC balance sheets and global liquidity are not on FRED: they come from the site's own data. Global liquidity adds up each central bank's latest figure, and China's arrives later than the others.
It describes conditions outside the US from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, PBOC and OECD (10-year bonds), via FRED and arturillo.com. US recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.