Consumer indicators

People are gloomy (sentiment 51.7) but keep buying: real sales are up 2.5% over a year. It does so saving little (4.1%) with income growing only 1.3%.

✨

AI summary

Loading…

GDP Labour Prices Money Liquidity Markets World Trade Government Business Consumer Housing Energy

Consumer tab score

5/10Caution

average 5.20

People are gloomy (sentiment 51.7) but keep buying: real sales are up 2.5% over a year. It does so saving little (4.1%) with income growing only 1.3%.

The 5 indicators

Consumer sentiment51.71 Retail sales, 3-month pace+0.8% m/m7 Retail sales over a year+6.3% in dollars8 Saving rate4.1%5 Real disposable income+0.2% m/m5

What would turn it red

Three of the five indicators red at once. Today: 1.
Real sales starting to fall versus a year ago. Today: +2.5%.
The saving rate dropping below 3.5% (today 4.1%): spending would be running on savings.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Consumer Confidence

-3.5

pts

+6.9

pts

-4.9

pts

-6.5

pts

Last

51.7 pts

55.2 pts

All-time: 44.8 – 112 pts · since Nov 52 · now at 10% of that range

Consumer Confidence stands at 51.7pts (Aug 1, 2026), down from 55.2pts on Jul 1, 2026. Since Aug 1, 2025 it has moved -6.5 pts.

University of Michigan sentiment survey — helps predict consumer spending.

Loading chart…

Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

Consumer Confidence pts51.755.2-3.5pts · 1M11244.810%—Aug 26

Retail Sales MoM %0.71.3-0.6% · 1M18.5-11.941%—Sep 26

Retail Sales YoY %6.35.6+0.7% · 1M51.5-19.536%—Sep 26

Personal Saving Rate %▼ 20224.14.6-0.5% · 1M31.81.49%—Aug 26

Personal Income MoM %0.20.3-0.1% · 1M20.8-12.939%—Aug 26

The 5 indicators

Consumer sentiment

Consumer Confidence

1/10Alert

51.7Aug 2026

Sentiment is at 51.7. In May 2026 it hit 44.8, the lowest since data began (1952).

See scale and last 10 years

How households see their finances and the economy (University of Michigan). It hit 55 in the 2008 recession and 50 in 2022 with inflation.

Measures: University of Michigan sentiment index.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	University of Michigan sentiment index
10	92.0 or more
9	88.0 to 91.9
8	84.0 to 87.9
7	80.0 to 83.9
6	76.0 to 79.9
5	72.0 to 75.9
4	67.0 to 71.9
3	62.0 to 66.9
2	56.0 to 61.9
1	less than 56.0

Universidad de Michigan (UMCSENT) · FRED

Retail sales, 3-month pace

Retail Sales MoM

7/10Caution

+0.8% m/mSep 2026 · real, 3-month annualized +2.1%

After inflation, sales over the last three months are running at +2.1% annualized.

See scale and last 10 years

Store and restaurant sales over the last three months, after inflation, at an annual rate. One month alone is noisy.

Measures: Real retail sales, 3-month annualized (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Real retail sales, 3-month annualized (%)
10	6.0 or more
9	4.0 to 5.9
8	3.0 to 3.9
7	2.0 to 2.9
6	1.0 to 1.9
5	0.0 to 0.9
4	−2.0 to −0.1
3	−5.0 to −2.1
2	−10.0 to −5.1
1	less than −10.0

Census (RSAFS) y Fed de St. Louis (RRSFS) · FRED

Retail sales over a year

Retail Sales YoY

8/10Healthy

+6.3% in dollarsSep 2026 · real +2.5%

Sales are up 6.3% over a year, but 2.5% after inflation.

See scale and last 10 years

The same versus a year ago. The page shows the dollar change; the gauge uses it after inflation.

Measures: Real retail sales vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Real retail sales vs. a year ago (%)
10	5.0 or more
9	4.0 to 4.9
8	2.5 to 3.9
7	1.5 to 2.4
6	0.5 to 1.4
5	0.0 to 0.4
4	−1.5 to −0.1
3	−3.0 to −1.6
2	−6.0 to −3.1
1	less than −6.0

Census (RSAFS) y Fed de St. Louis (RRSFS) · FRED

Saving rate

Personal Saving Rate

5/10Caution

4.1%Aug 2026

Households save 4.1% of their income, versus 7.3% in 2019.

See scale and last 10 years

The share of disposable income households save. When it drops a lot, spending is running on savings. In 2019 it was 7.3%; before the 2008 crisis, under 3%.

Measures: Saving / disposable income (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Saving / disposable income (%)
10	7.0 or more
9	6.0 to 6.9
8	5.5 to 5.9
7	5.0 to 5.4
6	4.5 to 4.9
5	4.0 to 4.4
4	3.5 to 3.9
3	3.0 to 3.4
2	2.5 to 2.9
1	less than 2.5

BEA (PSAVERT) · FRED

Real disposable income

Personal Income MoM

5/10Caution

+0.2% m/mAug 2026 · real +1.3% over a year

After taxes and inflation, household income is up 1.3% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

What households keep after taxes, after inflation, versus a year ago. It is what funds spending without dipping into savings or debt.

Measures: Real disposable income vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Real disposable income vs. a year ago (%)
10	4.0 or more
9	3.0 to 3.9
8	2.5 to 2.9
7	2.0 to 2.4
6	1.5 to 1.9
5	1.0 to 1.4
4	0.0 to 0.9
3	−1.0 to −0.1
2	−3.0 to −1.1
1	less than −3.0

BEA (PI, DSPIC96) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1978

Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds. Real retail sales start in 1992: before that, the score uses sentiment, saving and income. Gray bands are recessions.

A1980 · sentiment falls to 52 with inflation at 14%
B2008 · sentiment hits 55 and sales sink
C2020 · COVID: sales fall 22% in two months
D2022 · with inflation at 9%, sentiment hits 50
EToday · score 5: people are gloomy (sentiment 51

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. Sales and income after inflation.
The score is the average of the five, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
If three of the five are red, the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

The page shows sales and income in current dollars; the gauge uses them after inflation, which shows whether people buy more things.
Sentiment is measured as a level: it is near record lows even though spending holds up. The gauge shows it as is.
It describes consumer spending from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: University of Michigan (sentiment), Census (retail sales), St. Louis Fed (real sales) and BEA (saving and income), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.