Government indicators

Debt is 122.6% of GDP and the government spends 5.4% of GDP more than it takes in with no recession: debt keeps growing in the good years.

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Government tab score

4/10Alert
average 4.00

Debt is 122.6% of GDP and the government spends 5.4% of GDP more than it takes in with no recession: debt keeps growing in the good years.

The 2 indicators

Federal debt / GDP122.6% of GDP3Budget deficit5.4% of GDP5

What would turn it red

  • It is already red. To get back to yellow the average would need to rise above 4.5: for example, a deficit below 5% of GDP (today 5.4%) with debt not rising.
  • Debt does not fall from one year to the next: even if the deficit is fixed, its gauge stays red while it is above 110% of GDP.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Government Debt to GDP

3M
+0.02
% of GDP
6M
+1.56
% of GDP
1Y
+2.04
% of GDP
â–²Highest since Apr 1, 2021(4y 9m)
Last
122.59 % of GDP
Previous
122.57 % of GDP
All-time: 30.6 – 132.7 % of GDP · since Jan 66 · now at 90% of that range

Government Debt to GDP stands at 122.59% of GDP (Jan 1, 2026), up from 122.57% of GDP on Oct 1, 2025. Since Jan 1, 2025 it has moved +2.04 pp.

Federal debt as a share of GDP — measures fiscal sustainability.

Loading chart…

Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:
IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate
Government Debt to GDP % of GDP▲ 2021122.59122.57+0.02% of GDP · 3M132.730.690%—Jan 26
Government Budget $M-166,797-432,307.9+265,510.9+61.4% · 1M308,215.1-864,074.160%—Aug 26

The 2 indicators

Federal debt / GDP

Government Debt to GDP
3/10Alert
122.6% of GDPQ1 2026

Federal debt equals 122.6% of a year's output; five years ago it was 124.0%.

See scale and last 10 years

All federal debt (including what it owes itself, like Social Security) divided by GDP. It was 31% in 1980 and 62% in 2007.

Measures: Total federal debt, % of GDP.

Apr 2016last 10 yearsJan 2026
ScoreTotal federal debt, % of GDP
1060.0 or less
960.1 to 70.0
870.1 to 80.0
780.1 to 90.0
690.1 to 100.0
5100.1 to 110.0
4110.1 to 120.0
3120.1 to 130.0
2130.1 to 145.0
1more than 145.0

Tesoro y Fed de St. Louis (GFDEGDQ188S) · FRED

Budget deficit

Government Budget
5/10Caution
5.4% of GDPAug 2026 · monthly balance $−166.8B

Over the last 12 months the government spent 5.4% of GDP more than it took in, with no recession.

See scale and last 10 years

How much more the government spent than it took in over the last 12 months, as % of GDP. It jumps in recessions (2009–10: 10%; 2021: 18%); a large deficit in a growing economy is the unusual part.

Measures: 12-month deficit, % of GDP.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026
Score12-month deficit, % of GDP
101.0 or less
91.1 to 2.0
82.1 to 3.0
73.1 to 4.0
64.1 to 5.0
55.1 to 6.0
46.1 to 7.0
37.1 to 9.0
29.1 to 12.0
1more than 12.0

Tesoro (MTSDS133FMS) y BEA (GDP) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1981

Each quarter's score, with today's rules and thresholds. It starts in 1981 because the Treasury's monthly deficit is published from late 1980. Gray bands are recessions.

14710198519901995200020052010201520202025ABCDE
  • A1983 · after the recession, the deficit reaches 5.4% of GDP with debt still at 37%
  • B2000 · surplus: the government takes in more than it spends
  • C2009 · the Great Recession sends the deficit to 10%
  • D2020–21 · COVID: the 12-month deficit reaches 18% of GDP
  • EToday · score 4: debt is 122

How it is calculated

The rules

  1. Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table, as % of GDP.
  2. The score is the average of the two, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
  3. An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

  • Debt includes what the government owes itself (Social Security and other trust funds), which is the series on the page.
  • The deficit is summed over 12 months to remove tax seasonality (April and September).
  • The cycle is not removed: a big deficit in a recession is expected, but the gauge does not distinguish it. The sentence does.
  • It describes public finances from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: US Treasury (debt and monthly deficit), St. Louis Fed and BEA (GDP), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.