Trade indicators

Trade is growing: real exports +5.8% and imports +5.5% over a year. The external deficit is about 3.3% of GDP.

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Trade tab score

8/10Healthy

average 8.00

Trade is growing: real exports +5.8% and imports +5.5% over a year. The external deficit is about 3.3% of GDP.

The 4 indicators

Trade balance$−105.6B7 Current account$−246.0B7 Exports$3.79T a year9 Imports$4.67T a year9

What would turn it red

The trade deficit above 5% of GDP (today 3.3%).
Real exports or imports falling more than 2% in a year: it usually happens in recessions.
Two of the four indicators red at once.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Balance of Trade

-12,746

-13.73%

-29,820

-39.37%

-53,072

-101.09%

-45,930

-77.01%

▼Lowest since Apr 1, 2025(1y 4m)

Last

-105,572 $M

-92,826 $M

All-time: -132,983 – -831 $M · since Jan 92 · now at 21% of that range

Balance of Trade stands at -105,572$M (Aug 1, 2026), down from -92,826$M on Jul 1, 2026. Since Aug 1, 2025 it has moved -77.0%.

Exports minus imports of goods and services. Negative = trade deficit.

Loading chart…

Bars from zero — the zero line is a real reference for this series.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

Balance of Trade $M▼ 2025-105,572-92,826-12,746-13.7% · 1M-831-132,98321%—Aug 26

Current Account $M-246,023-212,597-33,426-15.7% · 3M-57,888-438,23951%—Apr 26

Exports $B3,794.63,547.3+247.32+7.0% · 3M3,794.611.7100%—Apr 26

Imports $B4,674.94,368.1+306.8+7.0% · 3M4,674.97.5100%—Apr 26

The 4 indicators

Trade balance

Balance of Trade

7/10Caution

$−105.6BAug 2026 · monthly deficit $105.6B

The US buys more abroad than it sells: the last three months' deficit equals 3.3% of GDP.

See scale and last 10 years

Exports minus imports of goods and services. The gauge uses the last 3 months' deficit at an annual rate, as % of GDP. It reached 6% in 2006.

Measures: Trade deficit, 3-month average annualized, % of GDP.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Trade deficit, 3-month average annualized, % of GDP
10	2.0 or less
9	2.1 to 2.5
8	2.6 to 3.0
7	3.1 to 3.5
6	3.6 to 4.0
5	4.1 to 4.5
4	4.6 to 5.0
3	5.1 to 5.5
2	5.6 to 6.0
1	more than 6.0

Census y BEA (BOPGSTB, GDP) · FRED

Current account

Current Account

7/10Caution

$−246.0BQ2 2026 · quarterly

The current account deficit is 3.0% of GDP in Q2 2026.

See scale and last 10 years

Trade plus income flows (interest, dividends, remittances). A deficit is financed from abroad: the bigger it is, the more the country relies on the world to keep lending.

Measures: Current account deficit, % of GDP.

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Current account deficit, % of GDP
10	1.5 or less
9	1.6 to 2.0
8	2.1 to 2.5
7	2.6 to 3.0
6	3.1 to 3.5
5	3.6 to 4.0
4	4.1 to 4.5
3	4.6 to 5.0
2	5.1 to 5.5
1	more than 5.5

BEA (IEABC, GDP) · FRED

Exports

9/10Healthy

$3.79T a yearQ2 2026 · annual rate

After inflation, exports are up 5.8% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

What the US sells abroad, after inflation, versus a year ago. A drop means the world is buying less.

Measures: Real exports vs. a year ago (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Real exports vs. a year ago (%)
10	6.0 or more
9	4.5 to 5.9
8	3.0 to 4.4
7	2.0 to 2.9
6	1.0 to 1.9
5	0.0 to 0.9
4	−2.0 to −0.1
3	−5.0 to −2.1
2	−10.0 to −5.1
1	less than −10.0

BEA (EXPGS, EXPGSC1) · FRED

Imports

9/10Healthy

$4.67T a yearQ2 2026 · annual rate

After inflation, imports are up 5.5% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

What the US buys abroad, after inflation, versus a year ago. A drop is not good news: it usually means domestic demand is sinking, as in 2009 and 2020. Tariffs also move it, as purchases are pulled forward.

Measures: Real imports vs. a year ago (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Real imports vs. a year ago (%)
10	6.0 or more
9	4.5 to 5.9
8	3.0 to 4.4
7	2.0 to 2.9
6	1.0 to 1.9
5	0.0 to 0.9
4	−2.0 to −0.1
3	−5.0 to −2.1
2	−10.0 to −5.1
1	less than −10.0

BEA (IMPGS, IMPGSC1) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1960

Each quarter's score, with today's rules and thresholds. The monthly trade balance starts in 1992 and the current account in 1999: before that, the score uses exports and imports. Gray bands are recessions.

A1975 · the oil recession sinks imports
B2006 · the trade deficit reaches 6% of GDP
C2009 · world trade collapses in the Great Recession
D2020 · COVID: exports and imports fall together
EToday · score 8: trade is growing

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. Deficits as % of GDP; exports and imports after inflation versus a year ago.
The score is the average of the four, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
If two of the four are red, the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

The trade deficit uses a 3-month average: tariffs cause pulled-forward purchases that swing single months.
A surplus is not counted as a problem: the scale only looks at deficits.
Falling imports are a bad sign: they almost always mean domestic demand is sinking.
It describes trade from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: Census and BEA (trade balance, current account, exports and imports), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.