Fed Decision Dates

Official FOMC meeting schedule — interest rate decisions

What the Fed projects (SEP)

Official median projections from the last Summary of Economic Projections — updated only at meetings marked "SEP + Dot Plot" above.

What the market is pricing in

Market-implied odds of each rate outcome at upcoming meetings, from Fed Funds futures — not the same as the SEP above (that's what Fed officials themselves project). Updates through the day as futures prices move.

What bettors are wagering

The same question from the other side: real money wagered on Polymarket, a prediction market open to anyone — not institutional futures. It is smaller and less liquid than the CME market above, and it tends to move after the futures, not before. Shown side by side because the gap between the two is the interesting part.