Markets price 2.34% a year for 5 to 10 years ahead (in 2004–2019 it usually moved between 1.8% and 2.7%).
The average inflation bonds price for the period 5 to 10 years ahead (5y5y inflation compensation, monthly average). It includes risk and liquidity premia, so it is not a pure expectation.
Household inflation is above normal: CPI is up 3.7% over a year, pushed by energy (+20.4%). Underlying inflation is closer to 2% but still above it: core PCE is up 3.0% over a year (2.7% annualized over six months). The Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE gives a lower underlying reading: 2.19%.
Households expect more inflation than usual: 4.0% for the year ahead (Michigan, Aug 2026).
Household budgets: How fast are consumer prices rising?
average 5.0 · Caution
Inflation (CPI)
Inflation Rate YoY
5/10Caution▲ above normal
3.7%Sep 2026
Consumer prices are up 3.7% from a year ago, 1.3 pts above normal (2.4%).
See scale and last 10 years
How much consumer prices rose over a year (CPI). The Fed targets 2% on PCE; CPI usually runs about 0.4 pts higher, so 2.4% is normal here. Falling below 0.8% also counts against: inflation that is too low.
Measures: CPI vs. a year ago (%).
Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026
Score
Above
Below
10
2.4 to 2.6
1.6 to 2.3
9
2.7 to 2.8
1.2 to 1.5
8
2.9 to 3.0
0.8 to 1.1
7
3.1 to 3.3
0.0 to 0.7
6
3.4 to 3.6
−0.8 to −0.1
5
3.7 to 4.0
−2.1 to −0.9
4
4.1 to 4.5
−3.6 to −2.2
3
4.6 to 5.5
−5.6 to −3.7
2
5.6 to 7.5
−7.6 to −5.7
1
more than 7.5
less than −7.6
BLS (CPIAUCNS) · FRED
Underlying trend: Is it sticking?
average 6.0 · Caution
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)
Core PCE YoY (Fed)
6/10Caution▲ above normal
3.0%Aug 2026 · month +0.2%
The prices the Fed watches are up 3.0% over a year, and their six-month annualized pace is 2.7%.
See scale and last 10 years
PCE without food and energy, the underlying inflation the Fed watches. It is measured over a year and at its annualized pace over the last six months, both for the same month, and the worse one rules. Normal is 2%.
Measures: The worse of two: core PCE over a year and at a six-month annualized pace (%).
Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026
Score
Over a year · Above
Over a year · Below
Six-month pace (annualized) · Above
Six-month pace (annualized) · Below
10
2.0 to 2.2
1.8 to 1.9
2.0 to 2.2
1.6 to 1.9
9
2.3 to 2.4
1.5 to 1.7
2.3 to 2.5
1.3 to 1.5
8
2.5
1.3 to 1.4
2.6 to 2.8
1.0 to 1.2
7
2.6 to 2.7
1.0 to 1.2
2.9 to 3.2
0.6 to 0.9
6
2.8 to 3.0
0.8 to 0.9
3.3 to 3.6
0.2 to 0.5
5
3.1 to 3.5
0.5 to 0.7
3.7 to 4.2
−0.2 to 0.1
4
3.6 to 4.0
0.3 to 0.4
4.3 to 5.0
−0.8 to −0.3
3
4.1 to 5.0
0.0 to 0.2
5.1 to 6.5
−1.6 to −0.9
2
5.1 to 6.0
−1.0 to −0.1
6.6 to 8.0
−3.0 to −1.7
1
more than 6.0
less than −1.0
more than 8.0
less than −3.0
Over a year: 3.0 → 6 · Six-month pace (annualized): 2.7 → 8. The worse one rules.
BEA (PCEPILFE) · FRED
Other underlying measures: Do they agree?
not counted in the score
PCE inflation
PCE Price Index YoY
For information · not scored
3.4%Aug 2026 · month +0.3%
PCE prices are up 3.4% from a year ago, 1.4 pts above normal (2.0%).
See what it measures
The price index the Fed uses for its 2% target. It covers more spending than CPI, including what is paid on your behalf, like employer health insurance.
Measures: PCE vs. a year ago (%).
BEA (PCEPI) · FRED
Core inflation (CPI)
Core Inflation YoY
For information · not scored
2.6%Sep 2026
Prices excluding food and energy are up 2.6% from a year ago, 0.2 pts above normal (2.4%).
See what it measures
CPI without food and energy. Shelter weighs more than in PCE, so it can move differently.
Measures: Core CPI vs. a year ago (%).
BLS (CPILFENS) · FRED
Median CPI (Cleveland Fed)
Median CPI (Cleveland Fed)
For information · not scored
2.6%Sep 2026 · one-month annualized 2.8%
Prices of the typical item are up 2.6% from a year ago, 0.1 pts below normal (2.7%).
See what it measures
The price change in the middle when all items are ranked, ignoring extremes. The table row shows the one-month annualized figure; here, the 12-month change.
Measures: Median CPI vs. a year ago (%).
Cleveland Fed (MEDCPIM094SFRBCLE) · FRED
Trimmed-mean CPI (Cleveland Fed)
Trimmed-Mean CPI (Cleveland Fed)
For information · not scored
2.7%Sep 2026 · one-month annualized 3.5%
Prices, excluding extremes, are up 2.7% from a year ago, 0.3 pts above normal (2.4%).
See what it measures
The average price change after dropping the top and bottom 8%. Like the median, the 12-month change is shown here.
Measures: Trimmed-mean CPI vs. a year ago (%).
Cleveland Fed (TRMMEANCPIM094SFRBCLE) · FRED
Trimmed-mean PCE (Dallas Fed)
Trimmed-Mean PCE (Dallas Fed)
For information · not scored
2.19%Aug 2026
Trimmed-mean PCE is up 2.19% over a year.
See what it measures
PCE after dropping the most extreme price changes each month, up and down, over a year (Dallas Fed). It is another reading of underlying inflation: when it runs below core PCE, it gives a lower underlying signal.
Measures: Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE over a year (%).
Dallas Fed (PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL) · FRED
What's driving it: Food, shelter or energy?
not counted in the score
Food
Food Inflation YoY
For information · not scored
2.5%Sep 2026
Food prices are up 2.5% from a year ago. In 2010–2019 they rose 1.7% a year on average.
See what it measures
How much food prices rose over a year, at the store and eating out.
Measures: Food vs. a year ago (%).
BLS (CPIUFDNS) · FRED
Shelter
Shelter Inflation YoY
For information · not scored
3.2%Sep 2026
Shelter costs are up 3.2% from a year ago. In 2019 they rose 3.4% and in March 2023 they peaked at 8.2%.
See what it measures
Housing costs in CPI: rents and what owners would pay to rent their home. It is a third of CPI and lags new-lease rents by about a year.
Measures: CPI shelter vs. a year ago (%).
BLS (CUUR0000SAH1) · FRED
Energy
Energy Inflation YoY
For information · not scored
+20.4%Sep 2026
Energy is up 20.4% from a year ago; its 3-month pace is +25.3% annualized.
See what it measures
Gasoline, electricity and utility gas in CPI. It swings the most and drags headline inflation up and down. The Energy tab looks at it in detail.
Measures: Energy vs. a year ago (%).
BLS (CPIENGNS) · FRED
Short-term pace: How are the last three months?
not counted in the score
3-month pace (CPI)
Inflation Rate MoM
For information · not scored
4.6% annualizedSep 2026 · monthly +0.6%
Over the last three months prices are up 4.6% at an annual pace, 2.2 pts above normal (2.4%).
See what it measures
Price growth over the last three months, at an annual rate. It is noisy, so it does not count.
Measures: CPI, 3-month change annualized (%).
BLS (CPIAUCSL) · FRED
3-month pace (core)
Core Inflation MoM
For information · not scored
3.4% annualizedSep 2026 · monthly +0.3%
Over the last three months core prices are up 3.4% at an annual pace, 1.0 pts above normal (2.4%).
See what it measures
The same without food and energy: the pace of core CPI over the last three months, annualized.
Import prices are up 8.1% from a year ago. In 2010–2019 they rose 0.7% a year on average.
See what it measures
What the US pays for imports, excluding tariffs.
Measures: Import prices vs. a year ago (%).
BLS (IR) · FRED
Expectations: What do people and markets expect?
not counted in the score
Expected inflation
Inflation Expectations
For information · not scored
4.0%Aug 2026
Households expect 4.0% inflation over the next 12 months (in 2000–2019, 3.4% or less in 90% of months). Bonds price 2.29% over the next 10 years.
See what it measures
Two readings: the inflation households expect over the next 12 months (University of Michigan survey, median) and what bonds price for the next 10 years. The household reading comes through FRED one month late, under an agreement with the university, and both are shown for that month. They do not count in the score: when they leave their usual range, a separate notice appears.
Measures: Households' 12-month and markets' 10-year expected inflation (monthly average).
University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers (MICH) and St. Louis Fed (T10YIEM) · FRED
What markets price long term (5y5y)
5y5y Forward Inflation Expectation
For information · not scored
2.34%Sep 2026
Markets price 2.34% a year for 5 to 10 years ahead (in 2004–2019 it usually moved between 1.8% and 2.7%).
See what it measures
The average inflation bonds price for the period 5 to 10 years ahead (5y5y inflation compensation, monthly average). It includes risk and liquidity premia, so it is not a pure expectation.
Export prices are up 11.6% from a year ago. They rise with oil, gas and grains.
See what it measures
What the US charges for exports. It rises with oil, gas and grains; it is not what households pay.
Measures: Export prices vs. a year ago (%).
BLS (IQ) · FRED
Factory-to-store pressure
Core PPI − Core CPI
For information · not scored
+2.4 ptsSep 2026
Factory prices (ex food and energy) are up 5.0% and store prices are up 2.6%: a 2.4-pt gap.
See what it measures
Core producer prices minus core CPI. It describes margin pressure; it does not forecast CPI.
Measures: Core PPI − core CPI (pts).
BLS (PPIFES and CPILFENS) · FRED
If this gauge had existed since 1960
Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds and today's revised data (not what was known at the time). A month missing any of its three readings has no score: October 2025 has no CPI because of the government shutdown, and the 12-month change for October 2026 has no base. Before 1983 CPI measured homeownership with mortgage rates. Gray bands are recessions.
HealthyCautionAlertRecession (NBER)
A1974 · the oil embargo pushes CPI to 12.3% and core PCE to 10%
B1980 · inflation hits 14.8% and Volcker's Fed ends up raising rates to 19% in 1981
C1990 · the Gulf War pushes CPI to 6.3%
D2008 · oil pushes CPI to 5.6% with underlying inflation at 2.2%: red for household budgets
E2009 · CPI falls 2.1% and core PCE drops to 0.6%: inflation that is too low
F2021–23 · CPI hits 9.1% in June 2022, the highest in 40 years
GToday · score 5: household inflation is above normal
How it is calculated
The rules
Two readings count: CPI (household budgets) and core PCE (the underlying trend), the latter over a year and at a six-month annualized pace. Each is rounded to one decimal, the figure shown, and loses a point for every threshold it crosses.
Core PCE takes the worse of its two readings, both for the same month.
The score is the worse of the two parts. High headline inflation or persistent underlying inflation is enough to block a good score.
Everything else (other underlying measures, components, business prices and expectations) is shown but does not count.
All three readings must be 75 days old or less from the end of their month. If one is missing, there is no current score: the last one is shown, with its month.
Deliberate choices
Normal is 2% on PCE, the Fed's target, and 2.4% on CPI, which usually runs about 0.4 pts higher.
Green requires CPI between 0.8% and 3.0%, core PCE between 1.3% and 2.5% and its six-month pace between 1.0% and 2.8%, all at once. Inflation that is too low also counts against.
Expectations do not count: a separate notice appears when they leave their usual range (Michigan 1-year above 3.4%, or the 5y5y outside 1.8–2.7%).
It describes inflation from the latest release. It does not forecast market prices and is not a buy or sell signal.