Food Inflation YoY

Food

2.5%Sep 2026Score 10/10 · Healthy

Food prices are up 2.5% from a year ago. In 2010–2019 they rose 1.7% a year on average.

How much food prices rose over a year, at the store and eating out.

Source: BLS (CPIUFDNS) · FRED CPIUFDNS

✨

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GDP Labour Prices Money Liquidity Markets World Trade Government Business Consumer Housing Energy

Prices tab score

7/10Caution

average 6.53 · close to dropping to 6

Inflation is close to normal. Pressure is building at factories and abroad: producer prices +6.3% and import prices +7.0%. And people expect 4.0% next year.

The 5 blocks

InflationIs it near normal?8.2 MomentumSpeeding up or slowing?8.0 What's driving itFood, shelter or energy?7.3 What's comingPressure from factories and abroad?4.1 ExpectationsWhat do people and markets expect?5.0

What would turn it red

Core PCE, the Fed's gauge, above 4.0%, or core CPI above 4.4%. Today: 3.0% and 2.6%.
The average of the five blocks falling to 4.5. Today: 6.53.
Household expectations rising above 4.5% and staying there: drifting expectations worry the Fed most. Today: 4.0%.
On the downside, inflation turning negative: below −0.4% on PCE or 0% on CPI. That is deflation, like headline inflation in 2009 (−2.1%).

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Food Inflation YoY

-0.2

%

-0.5

%

-0.2

%

-0.6

%

▼Lowest since Feb 1, 2025(1y 7m)

Last

2.5 %

2.7 %

All-time: -34.3 – 36.7 % · since Jan 14 · now at 52% of that range

Food Inflation YoY stands at 2.5% (Sep 1, 2026), down from 2.7% on Aug 1, 2026. Since Sep 1, 2025 it has moved -0.6 pp.

Loading chart…

Bars from zero — the zero line is a real reference for this series.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

Inflation Rate YoY %3.73.4+0.3% · 1M23.7-15.849%—Sep 26

Inflation Rate MoM %0.60.4+0.2% · 1M2-1.863%—Sep 26

Core Inflation YoY %2.62.4+0.2% · 1M13.60.615%—Sep 26

Core Inflation MoM %0.30.30% · 1M1.4-0.542%—Sep 26

PCE Price Index YoY %3.43.40% · 1M11.6-1.537%—Aug 26

Producer Prices YoY %▲ 20236.35.6+0.7% · 1M11.6-1.560%—Sep 26

Core Producer Prices YoY %▲ 202354.8+0.2% · 1M9.70.251%—Sep 26

Core Producer Prices MoM %0.70.2+0.5% · 1M1.2-0.469%—Sep 26

Core PCE YoY (Fed) %330% · 1M10.20.625%—Aug 26

Inflation Expectations %44.2-0.2% · 1M10.40.436%—Aug 26

Median CPI (Cleveland Fed) %2.812.1+0.71% · 1M7.8-0.338%—Sep 26

Trimmed-Mean CPI (Cleveland Fed) %3.532.67+0.86% · 1M9.6-0.138%—Sep 26

Food Inflation YoY %▼ 20252.52.7-0.2% · 1M36.7-34.352%—Sep 26

Shelter Inflation YoY %3.23+0.2% · 1M20.9-0.718%—Sep 26

Energy Inflation YoY %20.416.3+4.1% · 1M47.1-28.165%—Sep 26

Import Price Index YoY %▲ 202276.1+0.9% · 1M21.4-19.164%—Aug 26

Export Price Index YoY %8.68.1+0.5% · 1M18.6-11.867%—Aug 26

Producer Prices MoM %▲ 20221.30.5+0.8% · 1M1.7-1.286%—Sep 26

Core PPI − Core CPI pp2.42.40pp · 1M3.2-2.586%—Sep 26

10Y Breakeven Inflation %2.352.33+0.02% · 1D3078%—Oct 26

The 19 indicators

Inflation: Is it near normal?

average 8.2 · Healthy

Inflation (CPI)

Inflation Rate YoY

6/10Caution▲ above normal

3.7%Sep 2026

Consumer prices are up 3.7% from a year ago, 1.3 pts above normal (2.4%).

See scale and last 10 years

How much consumer prices rose over a year. The Fed targets 2% on PCE; CPI usually runs about 0.4 pts higher, so 2.4% is normal here.

Measures: CPI vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.4 to 2.7	2.0 to 2.3
9	2.8 to 3.0	1.6 to 1.9
8	3.1 to 3.3	1.2 to 1.5
7	3.4 to 3.6	0.8 to 1.1
6	3.7 to 4.0	0.4 to 0.7
5	4.1 to 4.4	0.0 to 0.3
4	4.5 to 5.0	−0.4 to −0.1
3	5.1 to 6.0	−1.0 to −0.5
2	6.1 to 8.0	−2.0 to −1.1
1	more than 8.0	less than −2.0

BLS (CPIAUCNS) · FRED

Core inflation (CPI)

Core Inflation YoY

10/10Healthy

2.6%Sep 2026

Prices excluding food and energy are up 2.6% from a year ago, 0.2 pts above normal (2.4%).

See scale and last 10 years

CPI without food and energy, which swing a lot. It shows where underlying inflation is heading.

Measures: Core CPI vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.4 to 2.7	2.0 to 2.3
9	2.8 to 3.0	1.6 to 1.9
8	3.1 to 3.3	1.2 to 1.5
7	3.4 to 3.6	0.8 to 1.1
6	3.7 to 4.0	0.4 to 0.7
5	4.1 to 4.4	0.0 to 0.3
4	4.5 to 5.0	−0.4 to −0.1
3	5.1 to 6.0	−1.0 to −0.5
2	6.1 to 8.0	−2.0 to −1.1
1	more than 8.0	less than −2.0

BLS (CPILFENS) · FRED

Median CPI (Cleveland Fed)

10/10Healthy

2.6%Sep 2026 · one-month annualized 2.8%

Prices of the typical item are up 2.6% from a year ago, 0.2 pts above normal (2.4%).

See scale and last 10 years

The price change in the middle when all items are ranked, ignoring extremes. The page shows the one-month annualized figure; the gauge uses the 12-month change, which is steadier.

Measures: Median CPI vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.4 to 2.7	2.0 to 2.3
9	2.8 to 3.0	1.6 to 1.9
8	3.1 to 3.3	1.2 to 1.5
7	3.4 to 3.6	0.8 to 1.1
6	3.7 to 4.0	0.4 to 0.7
5	4.1 to 4.4	0.0 to 0.3
4	4.5 to 5.0	−0.4 to −0.1
3	5.1 to 6.0	−1.0 to −0.5
2	6.1 to 8.0	−2.0 to −1.1
1	more than 8.0	less than −2.0

Fed de Cleveland (MEDCPIM094SFRBCLE) · FRED

Trimmed-mean CPI (Cleveland Fed)

Trimmed-Mean CPI (Cleveland Fed)

10/10Healthy

2.7%Sep 2026 · one-month annualized 3.5%

Prices, excluding extremes, are up 2.7% from a year ago, 0.3 pts above normal (2.4%).

See scale and last 10 years

The average price change after dropping the top and bottom 8%. Like the median, the gauge uses the 12-month change.

Measures: Trimmed-mean CPI vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.4 to 2.7	2.0 to 2.3
9	2.8 to 3.0	1.6 to 1.9
8	3.1 to 3.3	1.2 to 1.5
7	3.4 to 3.6	0.8 to 1.1
6	3.7 to 4.0	0.4 to 0.7
5	4.1 to 4.4	0.0 to 0.3
4	4.5 to 5.0	−0.4 to −0.1
3	5.1 to 6.0	−1.0 to −0.5
2	6.1 to 8.0	−2.0 to −1.1
1	more than 8.0	less than −2.0

Fed de Cleveland (TRMMEANCPIM094SFRBCLE) · FRED

PCE inflation

PCE Price Index YoY

6/10Caution▲ above normal

3.4%Aug 2026 · month +0.3%

PCE prices are up 3.4% from a year ago, 1.4 pts above normal (2.0%).

See scale and last 10 years

The price index the Fed uses for its 2% target. It covers more spending than CPI, including what is paid on your behalf, like employer health insurance.

Measures: PCE vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.0 to 2.3	1.6 to 1.9
9	2.4 to 2.6	1.2 to 1.5
8	2.7 to 2.9	0.8 to 1.1
7	3.0 to 3.2	0.4 to 0.7
6	3.3 to 3.6	0.0 to 0.3
5	3.7 to 4.0	−0.4 to −0.1
4	4.1 to 4.6	−0.8 to −0.5
3	4.7 to 5.6	−1.4 to −0.9
2	5.7 to 7.6	−2.4 to −1.5
1	more than 7.6	less than −2.4

BEA (PCEPI) · FRED

Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)

Core PCE YoY (Fed)

7/10Caution▲ above normal

3.0%Aug 2026 · month +0.2%

The prices the Fed watches are up 3.0% from a year ago, 1.0 pts above normal (2.0%).

See scale and last 10 years

PCE without food and energy. It is the number the Fed watches to set interest rates. Target: 2%.

Measures: Core PCE vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.0 to 2.3	1.6 to 1.9
9	2.4 to 2.6	1.2 to 1.5
8	2.7 to 2.9	0.8 to 1.1
7	3.0 to 3.2	0.4 to 0.7
6	3.3 to 3.6	0.0 to 0.3
5	3.7 to 4.0	−0.4 to −0.1
4	4.1 to 4.6	−0.8 to −0.5
3	4.7 to 5.6	−1.4 to −0.9
2	5.7 to 7.6	−2.4 to −1.5
1	more than 7.6	less than −2.4

BEA (PCEPILFE) · FRED

Momentum: Speeding up or slowing?

average 8.0 · Healthy

3-month pace (CPI)

Inflation Rate MoM

7/10Caution▲ above normal

4.6% annualizedSep 2026 · monthly +0.6%

Over the last three months prices are up 4.6% at an annual pace, 2.2 pts above normal (2.4%).

See scale and last 10 years

Price growth over the last three months, at an annual rate. One month is noisy; three months show whether inflation is speeding up or slowing.

Measures: CPI, 3-month change annualized (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.4 to 3.0	1.6 to 2.3
9	3.1 to 3.6	0.8 to 1.5
8	3.7 to 4.2	0.0 to 0.7
7	4.3 to 4.8	−0.8 to −0.1
6	4.9 to 5.4	−1.6 to −0.9
5	5.5 to 6.0	−2.4 to −1.7
4	6.1 to 7.0	−3.2 to −2.5
3	7.1 to 8.4	−4.2 to −3.3
2	8.5 to 11.4	−6.0 to −4.3
1	more than 11.4	less than −6.0

BLS (CPIAUCSL) · FRED

3-month pace (core)

Core Inflation MoM

9/10Healthy▲ above normal

3.4% annualizedSep 2026 · monthly +0.3%

Over the last three months core prices are up 3.4% at an annual pace, 1.0 pts above normal (2.4%).

See scale and last 10 years

The same without food and energy: the pace of underlying inflation over the last three months, annualized.

Measures: Core CPI, 3-month change annualized (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	2.4 to 3.0	1.6 to 2.3
9	3.1 to 3.6	0.8 to 1.5
8	3.7 to 4.2	0.0 to 0.7
7	4.3 to 4.8	−0.8 to −0.1
6	4.9 to 5.4	−1.6 to −0.9
5	5.5 to 6.0	−2.4 to −1.7
4	6.1 to 7.0	−3.2 to −2.5
3	7.1 to 8.4	−4.2 to −3.3
2	8.5 to 11.4	−6.0 to −4.3
1	more than 11.4	less than −6.0

BLS (CPILFESL) · FRED

What's driving it: Food, shelter or energy?

average 7.3 · Caution

Food

Food Inflation YoY

10/10Healthy

2.5%Sep 2026

Food prices are up 2.5% from a year ago. In 2010–2019 they rose 1.7% a year on average.

See scale and last 10 years

How much food prices rose over a year, at the store and eating out.

Measures: Food vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Food vs. a year ago (%)
10	2.5 or less
9	2.6 to 3.0
8	3.1 to 3.5
7	3.6 to 4.0
6	4.1 to 4.5
5	4.6 to 5.0
4	5.1 to 6.0
3	6.1 to 7.5
2	7.6 to 10.0
1	more than 10.0

BLS (CPIUFDNS) · FRED

Shelter

Shelter Inflation YoY

9/10Healthy

3.2%Sep 2026

Shelter costs are up 3.2% from a year ago. In 2019 they rose 3.4% and in March 2023 they peaked at 8.2%.

See scale and last 10 years

Housing costs in CPI: rents and what owners would pay to rent their home. It is a third of CPI and lags new-lease rents by about a year.

Measures: CPI shelter vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	CPI shelter vs. a year ago (%)
10	3.0 or less
9	3.1 to 3.5
8	3.6 to 4.0
7	4.1 to 4.5
6	4.6 to 5.0
5	5.1 to 5.5
4	5.6 to 6.5
3	6.6 to 7.5
2	7.6 to 9.0
1	more than 9.0

BLS (CUUR0000SAH1) · FRED

Energy

Energy Inflation YoY

3/10Alert

+20.4%Sep 2026

Energy is up 20.4% from a year ago, but its 3-month pace is +25.3% annualized.

See scale and last 10 years

Gasoline, electricity and utility gas in CPI. It swings the most and drags headline inflation up and down.

Measures: Energy vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Energy vs. a year ago (%)
10	2.0 or less
9	2.1 to 4.0
8	4.1 to 6.0
7	6.1 to 8.0
6	8.1 to 10.0
5	10.1 to 13.0
4	13.1 to 17.0
3	17.1 to 25.0
2	25.1 to 40.0
1	more than 40.0

BLS (CPIENGNS) · FRED

What's coming: Pressure from factories and abroad?

average 4.1 · Alert

Producer prices

Producer Prices YoY

3/10Alert

6.3%Sep 2026 · monthly +1.3%

Producer prices are up 6.3% from a year ago. In 2011–2019 they rose 1.7% a year on average.

See scale and last 10 years

What businesses charge for what they sell (producer prices, final demand). It tends to lead CPI.

Measures: Producer prices vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Producer prices vs. a year ago (%)
10	2.0 or less
9	2.1 to 2.5
8	2.6 to 3.0
7	3.1 to 3.5
6	3.6 to 4.0
5	4.1 to 5.0
4	5.1 to 6.0
3	6.1 to 8.0
2	8.1 to 11.0
1	more than 11.0

BLS (PPIFIS) · FRED

Core producer prices

Core Producer Prices YoY

4/10Alert

5.0%Sep 2026 · monthly +0.7%

Core producer prices are up 5.0% from a year ago. In 2011–2019 they rose 1.8% a year on average.

See scale and last 10 years

Producer prices without food and energy.

Measures: Core producer prices vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Core producer prices vs. a year ago (%)
10	2.0 or less
9	2.1 to 2.5
8	2.6 to 3.0
7	3.1 to 3.5
6	3.6 to 4.0
5	4.1 to 4.8
4	4.9 to 5.6
3	5.7 to 7.0
2	7.1 to 9.0
1	more than 9.0

BLS (PPIFES) · FRED

3-month pace (producer)

Producer Prices MoM

4/10Alert

8.1% annualizedSep 2026 · monthly +1.3%

Over the last three months producer prices are up 8.1% at an annual pace.

See scale and last 10 years

The pace of producer prices over the last three months, annualized.

Measures: Producer prices, 3-month annualized (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Producer prices, 3-month annualized (%)
10	2.0 or less
9	2.1 to 3.0
8	3.1 to 4.0
7	4.1 to 5.0
6	5.1 to 6.0
5	6.1 to 7.0
4	7.1 to 9.0
3	9.1 to 12.0
2	12.1 to 16.0
1	more than 16.0

BLS (PPIFIS) · FRED

3-month pace (core producer)

Core Producer Prices MoM

6/10Caution

5.2% annualizedSep 2026 · monthly +0.7%

Over the last three months core producer prices are up 5.2% at an annual pace.

See scale and last 10 years

The pace of core producer prices over the last three months, annualized.

Measures: Core producer prices, 3-month annualized (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Core producer prices, 3-month annualized (%)
10	2.0 or less
9	2.1 to 3.0
8	3.1 to 4.0
7	4.1 to 5.0
6	5.1 to 6.0
5	6.1 to 7.0
4	7.1 to 9.0
3	9.1 to 12.0
2	12.1 to 16.0
1	more than 16.0

BLS (PPIFES) · FRED

Import prices

Import Price Index YoY

4/10Alert

+7.0%Aug 2026

Import prices are up 7.0% from a year ago. In 2010–2019 they rose 0.7% a year on average.

See scale and last 10 years

What the US pays for imports, excluding tariffs. When it rises, goods in stores get pricier.

Measures: Import prices vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Import prices vs. a year ago (%)
10	1.0 or less
9	1.1 to 2.0
8	2.1 to 3.0
7	3.1 to 4.0
6	4.1 to 5.0
5	5.1 to 6.0
4	6.1 to 8.0
3	8.1 to 10.0
2	10.1 to 13.0
1	more than 13.0

BLS (IR) · FRED

Export prices

Export Price Index YoY

3/10Alert

+8.6%Aug 2026

Export prices are up 8.6% from a year ago. They rise with oil, gas and grains.

See scale and last 10 years

What the US charges for exports. It rises with oil, gas and grains, so it tracks commodity inflation.

Measures: Export prices vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Export prices vs. a year ago (%)
10	1.0 or less
9	1.1 to 2.0
8	2.1 to 3.0
7	3.1 to 4.0
6	4.1 to 5.0
5	5.1 to 6.0
4	6.1 to 8.0
3	8.1 to 10.0
2	10.1 to 13.0
1	more than 13.0

BLS (IQ) · FRED

Factory-to-store pressure

Core PPI − Core CPI

5/10Caution

+2.4 ptsSep 2026

Factory prices (ex food and energy) are up 5.0% and store prices 2.6%: a 2.4-pt gap that companies must pass on or absorb.

See scale and last 10 years

Core producer prices minus core CPI. When factory prices outpace store prices, companies must raise prices or accept thinner margins.

Measures: Core PPI − core CPI (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Core PPI − core CPI (pts)
10	0.0 or less
9	0.1 to 0.5
8	0.6 to 1.0
7	1.1 to 1.5
6	1.6 to 2.0
5	2.1 to 2.5
4	2.6 to 3.0
3	3.1 to 4.0
2	4.1 to 5.5
1	more than 5.5

BLS (PPIFES y CPILFENS) · FRED

Expectations: What do people and markets expect?

average 5.0 · Caution

Expected inflation

Inflation Expectations

5/10Caution

4.0%Aug 2026

Households expect 4.0% inflation over the next 12 months (in 2010–2019 they usually expected 2.5%–3.3%). Bonds price 2.29% over the next 10 years: markets believe the Fed target.

See scale and last 10 years

Two readings: the inflation households expect over the next 12 months (University of Michigan survey) and what bonds price for the next 10 years. The worse one rules: if people or markets stop believing the Fed's target, it is a worry. When people expect more inflation, they ask for higher pay and accept higher prices.

Measures: The worse of two: households' 12-month expected inflation and markets' 10-year (monthly average).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	What people expect (12 months)	What markets expect (10 years) · Above	What markets expect (10 years) · Below
10	2.8 or less	2.30 to 2.45	2.15 to 2.29
9	2.9 to 3.0	2.46 to 2.60	2.00 to 2.14
8	3.1 to 3.2	2.61 to 2.75	1.85 to 1.99
7	3.3 to 3.4	2.76 to 2.90	1.70 to 1.84
6	3.5 to 3.7	2.91 to 3.05	1.50 to 1.69
5	3.8 to 4.0	3.06 to 3.20	1.30 to 1.49
4	4.1 to 4.5	3.21 to 3.40	1.10 to 1.29
3	4.6 to 5.2	3.41 to 3.70	0.80 to 1.09
2	5.3 to 6.5	3.71 to 4.10	0.40 to 0.79
1	more than 6.5	more than 4.10	less than 0.40

What people expect (12 months): 4.0 → 5 · What markets expect (10 years): 2.29 → 10. The worse one rules.

Universidad de Michigan (MICH) y Fed de St. Louis (T10YIEM) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1978

Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds. Final-demand producer prices are missing before 2010 and market inflation expectations before 2003, so the score uses the indicators available (at least half). Gray bands are recessions.

A1980 · inflation hits 14.8% and Volcker's Fed ends up raising rates to 19% in 1981
B1990 · the Gulf War sends oil up and inflation reaches 6.3%
C2008–09 · oil pushes inflation to 5.6% and a year later it falls to −2.1%; core barely moves and the score stays yellow
D2021–23 · inflation hits 9.1% in June 2022, the highest in 40 years
EToday · score 7: inflation is close to normal

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. Broad measures use the distance from normal (2% on PCE, 2.4% on CPI), up or down; components and producer prices only count upward.
Each block is the average of its indicators and the score is the average of the five blocks, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
The Fed's gauge rules. If core inflation (PCE or CPI) drops to 4, the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

12-month changes use non-seasonally-adjusted series, as the BLS publishes them; 3-month paces use seasonally adjusted ones.
Single monthly figures are noisy: the four "MoM" indicators on the page are measured as a 3-month annualized pace. Median and trimmed-mean CPI, as 12-month changes.
Falling energy and food prices are not counted as a problem: deflation risk is measured on the broad measures.
It describes inflation from the latest release. It does not forecast market prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: BLS (CPI, producer, import and export prices), BEA (PCE), Cleveland Fed (median and trimmed-mean CPI) University of Michigan (household expectations) and St. Louis Fed (market expectations), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.