The stock earnings yield beats the real 10-year Treasury yield by 0.56 pts (median since 1881: 3.3): almost no cushion left.
The gap between the stock market's earnings yield and the real bond yield, according to Robert Shiller: 10-year average earnings divided by price (the inverse of the CAPE) minus the estimated real 10-year Treasury yield. It is not a guaranteed return: it is the cushion stocks offer over bonds. The lower it is, the less investors are paid for the risk. Its median since 1881 is 3.3 points; in 2000 it was negative. Shiller uses monthly average prices and his latest month is provisional.
Source: Robert Shiller (shillerdata.com)
Indicators
4
Markets
Score
4/10
Markets
Markets tab score
4/10Alert
average 4.00
Euphoria with no fear: stocks are worth 255% of GDP (a record since 1947), its earnings yield beats the real bond yield by just 0.56 pts and Baa credit pays only 1.46 pts over Treasuries (1-month median).
Credit tightening: Baa bonds above 3.5 pts (today 1.44), or high-yield above 5.75 (today 3.23), or financial conditions tighter than average, with the NFCI above 0 (today −0.50).
The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The spark marks where it is today.
VIX (Volatility Index)
1D
-0.41
idx
1W
+1.05
idx
1M
-0.74
idx
3M
-0.27
idx
6M
-1.48
idx
1Y
-4.18
idx
Last
16.46 idx
Previous
16.87 idx
All-time: 9.1 – 82.7 idx · since Jan 90 · now at 10% of that range
VIX (Volatility Index) stands at 16.46idx (Oct 15, 2026), down from 16.87idx on Oct 14, 2026. Since Oct 15, 2025 it has moved -4.18 idx.
Expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, priced from options (Cboe). Below ~15 the market is calm; above ~30 it is scared. It spikes in every sell-off and falls back slowly.
Loading chart…
Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.
The VIX is at 15.3 (5-day median): stocks are calm.
See scale and last 10 years
How much investors expect the S&P 500 to move over the next month, taken from what they pay for options protection. It is known as the fear index. Half of all days since 1990 it has been below 17.6.
Measures: VIX, 5-day median.
Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026
Score
VIX, 5-day median
10
12.0 or less
9
12.1 to 14.0
8
14.1 to 16.0
7
16.1 to 19.0
6
19.1 to 22.0
5
22.1 to 25.0
4
25.1 to 30.0
3
30.1 to 37.0
2
37.1 to 45.0
1
more than 45.0
Cboe (VIXCLS) · FRED
Credit spread
Moody's Baa − 10-Year Treasury
9/10Healthy
1.44 ptsOct 15, 2026
Baa bonds pay 1.44 pts over the 10-year Treasury and high-yield bonds 3.23: no default fear.
See scale and last 10 years
The extra yield companies pay over Treasuries, in two readings: Moody's Baa bonds (the lowest investment-grade rung) over the 10-year Treasury, with data since 1986, and high-yield bonds, which FRED only publishes for the last three years. The worse one rules. It rises when investors fear defaults: Baa reached 6.16 pts in December 2008. Half of all days since 1990 it was below 2.14.
Measures: The worse of two: Baa − 10-year spread and high-yield spread (pts).
Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026
Score
Baa − 10-year
High yield
10
1.80 or less
3.00 or less
9
1.81 to 2.00
3.01 to 3.50
8
2.01 to 2.25
3.51 to 4.00
7
2.26 to 2.50
4.01 to 4.50
6
2.51 to 3.00
4.51 to 5.00
5
3.01 to 3.50
5.01 to 5.75
4
3.51 to 4.00
5.76 to 6.50
3
4.01 to 4.75
6.51 to 8.00
2
4.76 to 5.50
8.01 to 10.00
1
more than 5.50
more than 10.00
Baa − 10-year: 1.44 → 10 · High yield: 3.23 → 9. The worse one rules.
Moody's (BAA10Y) e ICE BofA (BAMLH0A0HYM2) · FRED
Financial conditions
Financial Conditions (NFCI)
9/10Healthy
−0.50week of Oct 9, 2026
Financial conditions are at −0.50: easier than the average since 1971.
See scale and last 10 years
Chicago Fed index of 105 risk, credit and leverage measures. Zero is the average since 1971; below is easier than normal, above is tighter.
Measures: NFCI index (0 = average).
Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026
Score
NFCI index (0 = average)
10
−0.60 or less
9
−0.59 to −0.50
8
−0.49 to −0.40
7
−0.39 to −0.30
6
−0.29 to −0.20
5
−0.19 to 0.00
4
0.01 to 0.25
3
0.26 to 0.75
2
0.76 to 1.50
1
more than 1.50
Fed de Chicago (NFCI) · FRED
Euphoria: Are stocks expensive and complacent?
average 2.7 · Alert
Buffett indicator
Buffett Indicator (Market Cap/GDP)
1/10Alert
255%Q2 2026
Stocks are worth 255% of GDP, a record since data began (1947).
See scale and last 10 years
The market value of US nonfinancial companies (the longest Fed series to approximate the Buffett indicator) divided by GDP, at the end of each quarter. It shows whether stocks are expensive relative to the economy. It hit 163% in 2000; the average since 1950 is 87%.
Measures: Corporate equity value / GDP (%).
Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026
Score
Corporate equity value / GDP (%)
10
80 or less
9
81 to 100
8
101 to 115
7
116 to 130
6
131 to 145
5
146 to 160
4
161 to 180
3
181 to 200
2
201 to 230
1
more than 230
Fed (Z.1, NCBEILQ027S) y BEA (GDP) · FRED
Stock premium over bonds (ECY)
Excess CAPE Yield (Shiller)
4/10Alert
0.56 ptsOct 2026 · monthly
The stock earnings yield beats the real 10-year Treasury yield by 0.56 pts (median since 1881: 3.3): almost no cushion left.
See scale and last 10 years
The gap between the stock market's earnings yield and the real bond yield, according to Robert Shiller: 10-year average earnings divided by price (the inverse of the CAPE) minus the estimated real 10-year Treasury yield. It is not a guaranteed return: it is the cushion stocks offer over bonds. The lower it is, the less investors are paid for the risk. Its median since 1881 is 3.3 points; in 2000 it was negative. Shiller uses monthly average prices and his latest month is provisional.
Measures: Shiller's ECY: 1/CAPE − real 10-year yield (pts).
Nov 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026
Score
Shiller's ECY: 1/CAPE − real 10-year yield (pts)
10
3.00 or more
9
2.50 to 2.99
8
2.00 to 2.49
7
1.50 to 1.99
6
1.25 to 1.49
5
1.00 to 1.24
4
0.50 to 0.99
3
0.00 to 0.49
2
−0.75 to −0.01
1
less than −0.75
Robert Shiller (shillerdata.com) · FRED
Complacency
VIX & Baa spread, 1-month median
3/10Alert
VIX 15.3 · Baa 1.4621-session median to Oct 15, 2026
There is complacency: the last month's median of Baa credit is 1.46 pts, among the lowest since 1990.
See scale and last 10 years
The other side of fear: when the last month's median of the VIX or of the credit spread is very low, hardly anyone is paying for protection and any scare catches the market off guard. It happened in 2006–2007 and in 2017, before the VIX spike of February 2018. Two readings; the worse one rules.
Measures: The worse of two: VIX and Baa spread, 21-session median (low = complacency).
Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026
Score
VIX
Baa − 10-year
10
15.0 or more
1.85 or more
9
14.5 to 14.9
1.80 to 1.84
8
14.0 to 14.4
1.75 to 1.79
7
13.5 to 13.9
1.70 to 1.74
6
13.0 to 13.4
1.65 to 1.69
5
12.5 to 12.9
1.55 to 1.64
4
11.5 to 12.4
1.50 to 1.54
3
11.0 to 11.4
1.45 to 1.49
2
10.5 to 10.9
1.40 to 1.44
1
less than 10.5
less than 1.40
VIX: 15.3 → 10 · Baa − 10-year: 1.46 → 3. The worse one rules.
Cboe (VIXCLS) y Moody's (BAA10Y) · FRED
If this gauge had existed since 1990
Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds and the month-end reading: a scare lasting a few days, like April 2025, may not show. Credit is measured since 1990 with Moody's Baa bonds; high-yield spreads only have three years on FRED and come in from 2023. Each Buffett quarter counts from its last month (it is an end-of-quarter level) and the latest months use the last published one, like today's score. These are revised data, not what was known at the time, and Shiller's ECY uses monthly average prices. Gray bands are recessions.
HealthyCautionAlertRecession (NBER)
AAug 1990 · Iraq invades Kuwait: the VIX reaches 36
B1998 · Russia and LTCM crisis: the VIX reaches 46
C2000 · dot-com bubble: the stock earnings yield falls below the real bond yield (ECY of −1)
DFeb 2007 · complacency: the VIX at 11 and Baa credit at 1.6 pts, months before the crisis
E2008 · Lehman fails: the VIX closes at 81 and credit freezes
FMar 2020 · COVID: the VIX closes at 82.7, its record
G2022 · the Fed hikes at full speed: the VIX tops 30 on 49 days of the year
HApr 2025 · tariffs: the VIX closes at 52 on April 8, but by month-end it was back at 25 and the month shows amber
IToday · score 4: euphoria with no fear
How it is calculated
The rules
Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table.
Two blocks:Fear (VIX, credit and financial conditions) and Euphoria (Buffett indicator, Shiller's ECY and complacency). Each block is the average of its indicators.
The worse block rules: the score is that of the more worrying block, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
Euphoria alone never takes the score below 4. Expensive, complacent stocks are a risk, not a panic: only fear takes it to 3, 2 or 1.
Panic rules. If a fear indicator drops to 2 or 1 (VIX above 37, Baa credit above 4.75, high yield above 8 or NFCI above 0.75), the score is its score, not the block average.
Fear rules. If credit or financial conditions drop to 4, or the VIX to 3 (above 30), the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.
Deliberate choices
It looks only at US markets and one question: fear or euphoria. Fed liquidity has its own tab (the same score as /net-liquidity), the rest of the world is in World, curves and the real yield in Money, and market inflation expectations in Prices.
Fear and euphoria do not cancel out: calm does not hide very expensive stocks, and cheap stocks do not hide panic. That is why the worse block rules, not the average of the two.
The VIX and credit have two sides: very high is fear; very low for a month is complacency, as in 2007 or 2017.
Credit is measured with Moody's Baa bonds against the 10-year Treasury, which FRED has since 1986. High-yield spreads, which FRED only has since 2023, are a second reading: the worse one rules.
The VIX in the fear block is taken as a 5-day median, so a single day of panic does not move the score.
It describes market conditions from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.
Sources: Cboe (VIX), Moody's (Baa) and ICE BofA (high yield), Chicago Fed (NFCI), Federal Reserve (Z.1) and BEA (GDP), via FRED; Robert Shiller (ECY, shillerdata.com). Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.