Buffett Indicator (Market Cap/GDP)

Buffett indicator

255%Q2 2026Score 1/10 · Alert

Stocks are worth 255% of GDP, a record since data began (1947).

The market value of US companies divided by GDP. It shows whether stocks are expensive relative to the economy. It hit 163% in 2000; the average since 1950 is 87%.

Source: Fed (Z.1, NCBEILQ027S) y BEA (GDP) · FRED NCBEILQ027S

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AI summary

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GDP Labour Prices Money Liquidity Markets World Trade Government Business Consumer Housing Energy

Markets tab score

7/10Caution

average 6.75 · close to dropping to 6

Euphoria without fear: stocks are worth 255% of GDP, a record since data began (1947), while the VIX, high-yield spreads and financial conditions are calm.

The 4 indicators

Stock market fear (VIX)16.98 High-yield spread3.25 pts9 Financial conditions−0.509 Buffett indicator255%1

What would turn it red

The VIX above 30 (5-day median). Today: 15.3.
Credit tightening: high-yield spreads above 5.75 pts (today 3.25) or financial conditions tighter than average, with the NFCI above 0 (today −0.50).

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Buffett Indicator (Market Cap/GDP)

+35.5

%

+26.2

%

+41.7

%

▲Highest since Oct 1, 1947(78y 6m)

Last

255 %

219.5 %

All-time: 32.2 – 255 % · since Oct 47 · now at 100% of that range

Buffett Indicator (Market Cap/GDP) stands at 255% (Apr 1, 2026), up from 219.5% on Jan 1, 2026. Since Apr 1, 2025 it has moved +41.7 pp.

Warren Buffett's favorite valuation gauge: total US stock market value divided by GDP. Above ~150% is historically considered expensive; below ~100% cheap. Proxy: Fed corporate equities value (Wilshire 5000 was discontinued by FRED).

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Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

VIX (Volatility Index) idx16.8715.27+1.6idx · 1D82.79.111%—Oct 26

High Yield Credit Spread %3.253.16+0.09% · 1D4.62.633%—Oct 26

Financial Conditions (NFCI) idx-0.5-0.51+0.01idx · 1W5.2-1.110%—Oct 26

Buffett Indicator (Market Cap/GDP) %▲ 1947255219.5+35.5% · 3M25532.2100%—Apr 26

The 4 indicators

Stock market fear (VIX)

VIX (Volatility Index)

8/10Healthy

16.9Oct 14, 2026 · close 16.87

The VIX is at 15.3 (5-day median): stocks are calm.

See scale and last 10 years

How much investors expect the S&P 500 to move over the next month, taken from what they pay for options protection. It is known as the fear index. Half of all days since 1990 it has been below 17.6.

Measures: VIX, 5-day median.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	VIX, 5-day median
10	12.0 or less
9	12.1 to 14.0
8	14.1 to 16.0
7	16.1 to 19.0
6	19.1 to 22.0
5	22.1 to 25.0
4	25.1 to 30.0
3	30.1 to 37.0
2	37.1 to 45.0
1	more than 45.0

Cboe (VIXCLS) · FRED

High-yield spread

High Yield Credit Spread

9/10Healthy

3.25 ptsOct 14, 2026

Lower-rated companies pay 3.25 pts over Treasuries: no default fear.

See scale and last 10 years

The extra yield lower-rated companies pay over Treasuries. It rises when investors fear defaults: it hit 10.9% in March 2020. FRED only publishes the last three years.

Measures: High-yield spread over Treasuries (pts).

Oct 2023last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	High-yield spread over Treasuries (pts)
10	3.00 or less
9	3.01 to 3.50
8	3.51 to 4.00
7	4.01 to 4.50
6	4.51 to 5.00
5	5.01 to 5.75
4	5.76 to 6.50
3	6.51 to 8.00
2	8.01 to 10.00
1	more than 10.00

ICE BofA (BAMLH0A0HYM2) · FRED solo da los últimos 3 años · FRED

Financial conditions

Financial Conditions (NFCI)

9/10Healthy

−0.50week of Oct 9, 2026

Financial conditions are at −0.50: easier than the average since 1971.

See scale and last 10 years

Chicago Fed index of 105 risk, credit and leverage measures. Zero is the average since 1971; below is easier than normal, above is tighter.

Measures: NFCI index (0 = average).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	NFCI index (0 = average)
10	−0.60 or less
9	−0.59 to −0.50
8	−0.49 to −0.40
7	−0.39 to −0.30
6	−0.29 to −0.20
5	−0.19 to 0.00
4	0.01 to 0.25
3	0.26 to 0.75
2	0.76 to 1.50
1	more than 1.50

Fed de Chicago (NFCI) · FRED

Buffett indicator

Buffett Indicator (Market Cap/GDP)

1/10Alert

255%Q2 2026

Stocks are worth 255% of GDP, a record since data began (1947).

See scale and last 10 years

The market value of US companies divided by GDP. It shows whether stocks are expensive relative to the economy. It hit 163% in 2000; the average since 1950 is 87%.

Measures: Corporate equity value / GDP (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Corporate equity value / GDP (%)
10	80 or less
9	81 to 100
8	101 to 115
7	116 to 130
6	131 to 145
5	146 to 160
4	161 to 180
3	181 to 200
2	201 to 230
1	more than 230

Fed (Z.1, NCBEILQ027S) y BEA (GDP) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1990

Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds and the month-end reading: a scare lasting a few days, like April 2025, may not show. High-yield spreads only have three years on FRED: before that, the score uses the VIX, financial conditions and the Buffett indicator. Gray bands are recessions.

AAug 1990 · Iraq invades Kuwait: the VIX reaches 36
B1998 · Russia and LTCM crisis: the VIX reaches 46
C2000 · dot-com bubble: stocks are worth 163% of GDP
D2008 · Lehman fails: the VIX closes at 81 and credit freezes
EMar 2020 · COVID: the VIX closes at 82.7, its record
F2022 · the Fed hikes at full speed: the VIX tops 30 on 49 days of the year
GApr 2025 · tariffs: the VIX closes at 52 on April 8, but by month-end it was back at 25 and the month shows amber
HToday · score 7: euphoria without fear

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table.
The score is the average of the four, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
Fear rules. If high-yield spreads or financial conditions drop to 4, or the VIX to 3 (above 30), the score is at most 4. Expensive stocks (Buffett) don't count here: they are not stress today.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

It looks only at US markets and one question: fear or euphoria. Fed liquidity has its own tab (the same score as /net-liquidity), the rest of the world is in World, curves and the real yield in Money, and market inflation expectations in Prices.
The VIX is taken as a 5-day median, so a single day of panic does not move the score.
Euphoria counts: stocks very expensive relative to the economy lower the score even without fear, but alone they do not turn it red.
It describes market conditions from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: Cboe (VIX), ICE BofA (high yield), Chicago Fed (NFCI), Federal Reserve (Z.1) and BEA (GDP), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.