Industrial Production YoY

Industrial production

+1.4% over a yearAug 2026Score 8/10 · Healthy

Industry is producing 1.4% more than a year ago.

Output of factories, mines and utilities versus a year ago.

Source: Fed (INDPRO) · FRED INDPRO

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Business tab score

8/10Healthy

average 8.25

Factories are producing 1.0% more than a year ago and Fed surveys are positive, but they are using only 76.3% of capacity: there is room to produce more.

The 2 blocks

OutputAre factories producing more?7.5 SurveysWhat do managers say?9.0

What would turn it red

Industrial production falling more than 1.5% in a year: it usually happens in recessions. Today: +1.4%.
Fed surveys turning persistently negative (3-month average below −8 to −10).
Four of the seven indicators red at once.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Industrial Production YoY

+0.3

%

-0.3

%

+0.6

%

+0.2

%

Last

1.4 %

1.1 %

All-time: -33.7 – 62 % · since Jan 20 · now at 37% of that range

Industrial Production YoY stands at 1.4% (Aug 1, 2026), up from 1.1% on Jul 1, 2026. Since Aug 1, 2025 it has moved +0.2 pp.

Loading chart…

Bars from zero — the zero line is a real reference for this series.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

Industrial Production YoY %1.41.1+0.3% · 1M62-33.737%—Aug 26

Capacity Utilization %76.2776.33-0.06% · 1M89.464.148%—Aug 26

Durable Goods Orders MoM %-0.10.9-1% · 1M26.4-21.244%—Aug 26

Manufacturing Production YoY %11.4-0.4% · 1M21.3-19.751%—Aug 26

Philly Fed Mfg Index idx20.937.8-16.9idx · 1M58.5-58.768%—Oct 26

Empire State Mfg (NY Fed) idx▲ 202225.57.6+17.9idx · 1M39-8089%—Oct 26

Dallas Fed Mfg Index idx9.811.6-1.8idx · 1M47.6-73.669%—Sep 26

The 7 indicators

Output: Are factories producing more?

average 7.5 · Caution

Industrial production

Industrial Production YoY

8/10Healthy

+1.4% over a yearAug 2026

Industry is producing 1.4% more than a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

Output of factories, mines and utilities versus a year ago.

Measures: Industrial production vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Industrial production vs. a year ago (%)
10	3.0 or more
9	2.0 to 2.9
8	1.0 to 1.9
7	0.5 to 0.9
6	0.0 to 0.4
5	−0.5 to −0.1
4	−1.5 to −0.6
3	−3.0 to −1.6
2	−6.0 to −3.1
1	less than −6.0

Fed (INDPRO) · FRED

Capacity utilization

Capacity Utilization

5/10Caution

76.3%Aug 2026

Industry is using 76.3% of capacity, 3.1 pts below its average since 1972.

See scale and last 10 years

How much of their capacity factories, mines and utilities are using. The average since 1972 is 79.4%; below that there is slack and little investment.

Measures: Capacity utilization (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Capacity utilization (%)
10	82.0 or more
9	80.0 to 81.9
8	79.0 to 79.9
7	78.0 to 78.9
6	77.0 to 77.9
5	76.0 to 76.9
4	74.5 to 75.9
3	72.5 to 74.4
2	70.0 to 72.4
1	less than 70.0

Fed (TCU) · FRED

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing Production YoY

8/10Healthy

+1.0% over a yearAug 2026

Factories are producing 1.0% more than a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

Factories only, without mines or utilities, versus a year ago.

Measures: Manufacturing output vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Manufacturing output vs. a year ago (%)
10	3.0 or more
9	2.0 to 2.9
8	1.0 to 1.9
7	0.5 to 0.9
6	0.0 to 0.4
5	−0.5 to −0.1
4	−1.5 to −0.6
3	−3.0 to −1.6
2	−6.0 to −3.1
1	less than −6.0

Fed (IPMAN) · FRED

Durable goods orders

Durable Goods Orders MoM

9/10Healthy

−0.1% m/mAug 2026 · +9.3% 3-month vs. a year ago

Over the last three months factories got 9.3% more orders than a year earlier.

See scale and last 10 years

Factory orders for goods lasting over three years: machinery, cars, aircraft. Three months are added up and compared with a year earlier, because a single month swings with aircraft sales.

Measures: 3-month orders vs. the same months a year earlier (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	3-month orders vs. the same months a year earlier (%)
10	10.0 or more
9	7.0 to 9.9
8	5.0 to 6.9
7	3.0 to 4.9
6	1.0 to 2.9
5	−1.0 to 0.9
4	−4.0 to −1.1
3	−8.0 to −4.1
2	−15.0 to −8.1
1	less than −15.0

Census (DGORDER) · FRED

Surveys: What do managers say?

average 9.0 · Healthy

Philadelphia Fed survey

Philly Fed Mfg Index

10/10Healthy

20.9Oct 2026 · 3-month average 35.4

The 3-month average is 35.4: more factories are improving than worsening.

See scale and last 10 years

The Philadelphia Fed's monthly survey of factories in its district: the share saying business is improving minus the share saying it is worsening. Above zero, more are improving. It dates from 1968: the oldest.

Measures: Activity index, 3-month average (above 0 = improving).

Nov 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Activity index, 3-month average (above 0 = improving)
10	30.0 or more
9	20.0 to 29.9
8	10.0 to 19.9
7	5.0 to 9.9
6	0.0 to 4.9
5	−5.0 to −0.1
4	−10.0 to −5.1
3	−20.0 to −10.1
2	−30.0 to −20.1
1	less than −30.0

Fed de Filadelfia (GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI) · FRED

New York Fed survey

Empire State Mfg (NY Fed)

9/10Healthy

25.5Oct 2026 · 3-month average 17.9

The 3-month average is 17.9: more factories are improving than worsening.

See scale and last 10 years

The New York Fed's monthly survey of factories in its district: the share saying business is improving minus the share saying it is worsening. Above zero, more are improving. It is the first out each month.

Measures: Activity index, 3-month average (above 0 = improving).

Nov 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Activity index, 3-month average (above 0 = improving)
10	20.0 or more
9	12.0 to 19.9
8	6.0 to 11.9
7	2.0 to 5.9
6	0.0 to 1.9
5	−4.0 to −0.1
4	−8.0 to −4.1
3	−15.0 to −8.1
2	−25.0 to −15.1
1	less than −25.0

Fed de Nueva York (GACDISA066MSFRBNY) · FRED

Dallas Fed survey

Dallas Fed Mfg Index

8/10Healthy

9.8Sep 2026 · 3-month average 7.6

The 3-month average is 7.6: more factories are improving than worsening.

See scale and last 10 years

The Dallas Fed's monthly survey of factories in its district: the share saying business is improving minus the share saying it is worsening. Above zero, more are improving. Texas weighs heavily through oil and chemicals.

Measures: Activity index, 3-month average (above 0 = improving).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Activity index, 3-month average (above 0 = improving)
10	20.0 or more
9	12.0 to 19.9
8	6.0 to 11.9
7	2.0 to 5.9
6	0.0 to 1.9
5	−5.0 to −0.1
4	−10.0 to −5.1
3	−20.0 to −10.1
2	−30.0 to −20.1
1	less than −30.0

Fed de Dallas (BACTSAMFRBDAL) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1973

Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds. The New York (2001) and Dallas (2004) surveys and durable goods orders (1992) start late: the score uses the indicators available, at least half. Gray bands are recessions.

A1974–75 · industry falls more than 10% in the oil recession
B1982 · capacity utilization drops below 71%
C2009 · industrial production falls 15% in a year
D2015–16 · an industrial recession without a recession: cheap oil slows industry
E2020 · COVID: factories shut
FToday · score 8: factories are producing 1

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table.
Each block is the average of its indicators and the score is the average of the two blocks, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
If four of the seven are red, the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

Regional surveys use a 3-month average; durable goods orders, a 3-month sum versus a year earlier.
Very high survey readings are not counted as a problem: they measure whether industry is improving, not overheating.
It describes industry from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: Federal Reserve (industrial production and capacity), Census (durable goods) and the Philadelphia, New York and Dallas Feds (surveys), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.