Top-payers' premium

+8 bpOct 14, 2026Score 9/10 · Healthy

The priciest 1% of loans pay 8 bp over the typical one.

What the priciest 1% of overnight loans pay (SOFR 99th percentile) versus the typical one. That is where borrowers with the fewest options sit.

Source: Fed de Nueva York (SOFR99) · FRED SOFR99

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GDP Labour Prices Money Liquidity Markets World Trade Government Business Consumer Housing Energy

Liquidity score

7/10Caution

average 6.67 · close to dropping to 6

Cash is not scarce today, but the buffer is thin. The reverse repo tank is empty and every drain comes out of reserves. On Oct 15, Oct 16, Oct 20 and Oct 22 Treasury auctions drain $110.7B from the market.

The 4 blocks

PlumbingIs cash scarce today?9.0 CushionHow much buffer is left?4.7 FlowsIs money flowing in or out?6.0 ContagionHas fear reached bonds and companies?7.0

What would turn it red

Overnight cash above +7 bp over what the Fed pays (5-day median). Today: −2.
Banks taking more than $15B a day on average from the Fed window for a week. Today: $1.4M.
Bonds and corporate credit panicking together: contagion block at 4. Today: 7.0.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

The ten gauges, explained, on Net Liquidity →

Fed Balance Sheet

+4.6

+0.07%

+7

+0.10%

+12

+0.18%

+53.7

+0.80%

+156.8

+2.38%

Last

6,747.6 $B

6,743 $B

All-time: 712.8 – 8,965.5 $B · since Dec 02 · now at 73% of that range

Fed Balance Sheet stands at 6,747.6$B (Oct 7, 2026), up from 6,743$B on Sep 30, 2026. Since Oct 8, 2025 it has moved +2.4%.

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Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

Fed Balance Sheet $B6,747.66,743+4.6+0.1% · 1W8,965.5712.873%—Oct 26

Treasury General Account (TGA) $B920.2872.5+47.7+5.5% · 1D1,03822.988%—Oct 26

Reverse Repo (RRP) $B0.20.28-0.08-28.6% · 1D2,553.700%—Oct 26

Repo (overnight) $B000$B · 1D100.800%—Oct 26

Bank Reserves $B3,022.12,881.7+140.4+4.9% · 1W4,273.62.671%—Oct 26

Commercial Bank Total Assets $B26,009.325,928.4+80.93+0.3% · 1W26,009.3699.6100%—Sep 26

SOFR Rate %3.883.89-0.01% · 1D5.4072%—Oct 26

Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) %3.93.90% · 1D5.40.171%—Oct 26

Fed Liquidity (Assets-TGA-RRP) $B5,827.15,874.8-47.7-0.8% · 1D6,385.85,550.833%—Oct 26

The 10 indicators

Plumbing: Is cash scarce today?

average 9.0 · Healthy

Overnight cash price

SOFR − IORB

8/10Healthy

−2 bpOct 14, 2026

Overnight cash costs 2 bp below what the Fed pays.

See scale and last 10 years

The cost of overnight borrowing against Treasuries (SOFR) minus what the Fed pays banks on reserves (IORB).

Measures: SOFR − IORB, 5-business-day median (bp).

Apr 2018last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	SOFR − IORB, 5-business-day median (bp)
10	−7 or less
9	−6 to −4
8	−3 to 0
7	1 to 2
6	3 to 4
5	5 to 7
4	8 to 11
3	12 to 17
2	18 to 29
1	more than 29

Fed de Nueva York (SOFR) y Fed (IORB) · FRED

Top-payers' premium

SOFR99 − SOFR

9/10Healthy

+8 bpOct 14, 2026

The priciest 1% of loans pay 8 bp over the typical one.

See scale and last 10 years

What the priciest 1% of overnight loans pay (SOFR 99th percentile) versus the typical one. That is where borrowers with the fewest options sit.

Measures: SOFR 99th percentile − SOFR, 5-day median (bp).

Apr 2018last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	SOFR 99th percentile − SOFR, 5-day median (bp)
10	6 or less
9	7 to 8
8	9 to 10
7	11 to 12
6	13 to 15
5	16 to 19
4	20 to 29
3	30 to 49
2	50 to 99
1	more than 99

Fed de Nueva York (SOFR99) · FRED

Fed repo window

Standing Repo Facility

10/10Healthy

$1.4M a dayOct 14, 2026

Banks took $1.4M a day from the Fed last week: test trades.

See scale and last 10 years

How much cash banks borrow from the Fed against bonds (Standing Repo Facility). It is open every day; what matters is whether anyone uses it.

Measures: Daily facility use, 5-day average ($B).

Sep 2019last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Daily facility use, 5-day average ($B)
10	0.5000 or less
9	0.5001 to 1.0000
8	1.0001 to 3.0000
7	3.0001 to 6.0000
6	6.0001 to 10.0000
5	10.0001 to 15.0000
4	15.0001 to 25.0000
3	25.0001 to 50.0000
2	50.0001 to 80.0000
1	more than 80.0000

Fed de Nueva York (RPONTTLD) · FRED

Cushion: How much buffer is left?

average 4.7 · Caution

Bank reserves

WRBWFRBL / bank assets

6/10Caution

11.62%Wednesday Oct 7, 2026

Reserves are 11.6% of bank assets (repo broke at 8% in 2019 and got tight at 11.6–12.2% in Oct 2025).

See scale and last 10 years

The money banks hold at the Fed as a share of all their assets. It is the measure the Fed uses to judge whether reserves are abundant or scarce.

Measures: Wednesday reserves / bank assets (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Wednesday reserves / bank assets (%)
10	15.00 or more
9	13.50 to 14.99
8	12.50 to 13.49
7	12.00 to 12.49
6	11.50 to 11.99
5	11.00 to 11.49
4	10.50 to 10.99
3	10.00 to 10.49
2	9.00 to 9.99
1	less than 9.00

Fed (WRBWFRBL, H.8) · FRED

Interbank lending

EFFR − IORB

5/10Caution

−2 bpOct 14, 2026

Banks lend to each other 2 bp below the Fed's rate (7 bp when reserves were ample).

See scale and last 10 years

The rate banks charge each other for unsecured reserves (EFFR) minus what the Fed pays (IORB). The closer to zero, the fewer reserves are left over.

Measures: EFFR − IORB, 5-day median (bp).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	EFFR − IORB, 5-day median (bp)
10	−7 or less
9	−6 to −6
8	−5 to −5
7	−4 to −4
6	−3 to −3
5	−2 to −1
4	0 to 0
3	1 to 2
2	3 to 5
1	more than 5

Fed de Nueva York (EFFR) · FRED

Reverse repo tank

RRPONTSYD

3/10Alert

$0.2BOct 14, 2026

$0.2B left in reverse repo, down from a $2.55T peak.

See scale and last 10 years

Cash money-market funds park at the Fed (RRP). While it had a balance, drains came out of it and reserves were untouched. It never goes below 3: empty is not a crisis by itself.

Measures: Reverse repo balance ($B).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Reverse repo balance ($B)
10	1,000.0 or more
9	500.0 to 999.9
8	250.0 to 499.9
7	100.0 to 249.9
6	50.0 to 99.9
5	20.0 to 49.9
4	5.0 to 19.9
3	0.0 to 4.9
2	−1.0 to −0.1
1	less than −1.0

Fed de Nueva York (RRPONTSYD) · FRED

Flows: Is money flowing in or out?

average 6.0 · Caution

Net liquidity, 4 weeks

WALCL − TGA − RRP

7/10Caution

−37.0BWednesday Oct 7, 2026

Net liquidity fell $37.0B in four weeks.

See scale and last 10 years

Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury account and reverse repo: the money left for the banking system. This gauge counts the 4-week change.

Measures: Drop in net liquidity between Wednesdays 4 weeks apart ($B).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Drop in net liquidity between Wednesdays 4 weeks apart ($B)
10	−100.0 or less
9	−99.9 to −50.0
8	−49.9 to 25.0
7	25.1 to 75.0
6	75.1 to 125.0
5	125.1 to 175.0
4	175.1 to 250.0
3	250.1 to 350.0
2	350.1 to 500.0
1	more than 500.0

Fed (WALCL, WDTGAL) y Fed de NY (RRP) · FRED

What's coming: Treasury auctions

combinedFlow

5/10Caution

+110.7Bannouncements as of Oct 14, 2026

Auctions settling Oct 15, Oct 16, Oct 20 and Oct 22 drain a net $110.7B.

See scale and last 10 years

The net of Treasury auctions and buybacks settling in the next 5 business days. If positive, that money leaves the market for the Treasury's account. It loses a point if a major tax date falls in those days.

Measures: Net auctions − buybacks over the next 5 business days ($B).

Score	Net auctions − buybacks over the next 5 business days ($B)
10	−25.0 or less
9	−24.9 to 10.0
8	10.1 to 40.0
7	40.1 to 70.0
6	70.1 to 100.0
5	100.1 to 140.0
4	140.1 to 190.0
3	190.1 to 250.0
2	250.1 to 350.0
1	more than 350.0

Tesoro de EE. UU. (subastas anunciadas) · /api/net-liquidity · FRED

Contagion: Has fear reached bonds and companies?

average 7.0 · Caution

Bond jitters

ICE BofA MOVE

5/10Caution

105.1close Oct 15, 2026

Bond volatility (MOVE) is at 105.

See scale and last 10 years

The volatility markets expect in Treasuries over the next month (MOVE index). With bonds choppy, dealers lend less. ICE has no free official source: if Yahoo fails, it shows no data.

Measures: MOVE index, latest close.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	MOVE index, latest close
10	60.00 or less
9	60.01 to 70.00
8	70.01 to 80.00
7	80.01 to 90.00
6	90.01 to 100.00
5	100.01 to 110.00
4	110.01 to 125.00
3	125.01 to 145.00
2	145.01 to 170.00
1	more than 170.00

ICE BofA MOVE (^MOVE) · Yahoo Finance · FRED

Corporate credit

DCPN30 − DTB4WK

9/10Healthy

+5 bpOct 13, 2026

AA companies pay 5 bp over one-month Treasuries.

See scale and last 10 years

What an AA-rated company pays for 30-day funding (commercial paper) minus the 4-week Treasury bill.

Measures: AA commercial paper − 4-week bill, 5-day median (bp).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	AA commercial paper − 4-week bill, 5-day median (bp)
10	4 or less
9	5 to 8
8	9 to 12
7	13 to 16
6	17 to 20
5	21 to 25
4	26 to 35
3	36 to 50
2	51 to 80
1	more than 80

Fed (DCPN30, DTB4WK) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 2019

Each business day's score, with today's rules and thresholds. It excludes "What's coming", which looks ahead.

ASep 2019 · repo breaks: SOFR jumps to 5.25% and the Fed injects cash daily again
BMar 2020 · COVID: corporate credit freezes and the Fed lends over $100B a day
C2022 · bond panic with Fed hikes and the UK gilt crisis (MOVE above 125)
DMar 2023 · SVB and First Republic fail: credit and bond stress spike even though money was plentiful
EOct–Dec 2025 · repo tightens, the Fed window reaches $50B and the Fed ends QT on December 1
FToday · score 7: cash is not scarce today, but the buffer is thin

How it is calculated

The rules

Each gauge scores 1 to 10 from its table. Thresholds come from real episodes: September 2019, March 2020, March 2023 and October–November 2025.
Each block is the average of its gauges and the score is the average of the four blocks, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
Price rules. If a plumbing gauge drops to 4, or the contagion block averages 4 or less, the score is at most 4.
A gauge without data (for example if MOVE fails) is shown gray and left out of the average. It is never filled with zero.

Deliberate choices

Prices use the 5-business-day median and the facility the 5-day average: a month-end alone does not turn anything red.
On /fred it is the Liquidity tab: the same gauge and the same score. Its SOFR, IORB, repo, reverse repo, reserves and Fed liquidity rows show these same levels.
Reverse repo never goes below 3. An empty tank leaves no buffer, but is not a crisis by itself.
It describes today's liquidity conditions. It does not forecast stock, gold or bitcoin prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: Federal Reserve (IORB, reserves, H.8) and New York Fed (SOFR, EFFR, repo and reverse repo) via FRED · US Treasury (auctions) · ICE BofA MOVE · commercial paper and T-bills via FRED. Not investment advice.