Avg Hourly Earnings YoY

Hourly pay

+3.0% over a yearSep 2026Score 7/10 · Caution

Hourly pay is up 3.0% from a year ago, the slowest since May 2021.

How much average hourly pay rose over a year, before inflation. A strong job market forces employers to pay more.

Source: BLS (CES0500000003) · FRED CES0500000003

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Labour tab score

8/10Healthy

average 7.54 · close to dropping to 7

Hardly anyone is being laid off, but hardly anyone is being hired: people who lose a job take 24.8 weeks on average to find another.

The 6 blocks

UnemploymentHow many can't find work?8.3 LayoffsAre people being let go?10.0 HiringAre jobs being created?6.0 Job searchHow long to get back to work?5.0 PayIs pay rising?6.5 Outside the labor forceAre people giving up?9.5

What would turn it red

Jobless claims more than 30% above their 1-year low (4-week average). Today: at the low.
The Sahm rule triggering (0.50; today 0.00) while claims rise more than 20%. In summer 2024 it triggered alone and there was no recession: that is why both are required.
The average of the six blocks falling to 4.5. Today: 7.54, with hiring (6.0) and job search (5.0) the weakest.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Avg Hourly Earnings YoY

-0.1

%

-0.4

%

-0.4

%

-0.8

%

▼Lowest since Jun 1, 2021(5y 3m)

Last

3 %

3.1 %

All-time: 0.6 – 8.1 % · since Mar 07 · now at 32% of that range

Avg Hourly Earnings YoY stands at 3% (Sep 1, 2026), down from 3.1% on Aug 1, 2026. Since Sep 1, 2025 it has moved -0.8 pp.

Year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings — drives inflation and consumer power.

Loading chart…

Bars from zero — the zero line is a real reference for this series.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

Unemployment Rate %4.24.1+0.1% · 1M14.82.514%—Sep 26

Non Farm Payrolls K29133-104-78.2% · 1M4,631-20,46982%—Sep 26

Labor Force Participation %61.861.6+0.2% · 1M67.358.140%—Sep 26

Avg Hourly Earnings YoY %▼ 202133.1-0.1% · 1M8.10.632%—Sep 26

Real Median Weekly Earnings YoY %▼ 20240.50.8-0.3% · 3M9.8-641%—Apr 26

Initial Jobless Claims K199198+1+0.5% · 1W6,1371621%—Oct 26

JOLTS Job Openings K7,0797,335-256-3.5% · 1M12,3012,23248%—Aug 26

Continuing Jobless Claims K1,7101,714-4-0.2% · 1W23,1309883%—Oct 26

U6 Unemployment %▼ 20257.67.7-0.1% · 1M22.96.66%—Sep 26

Job Quits Rate %1.91.90% · 1M31.239%—Aug 26

JOLTS Hires K5,1925,146+46+0.9% · 1M8,1333,63935%—Aug 26

JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges K▼ 20251,6411,702-61-3.6% · 1M12,9851,3123%—Aug 26

Unemployment Level K7,1097,031+78+1.1% · 1M23,0841,59626%—Sep 26

Unemployment Duration weeks24.826.3-1.5-5.7% · 1M40.77.153%—Sep 26

Long-Term Unemployed (27+ wks) K1,9441,930+14+0.7% · 1M6,8004828%—Sep 26

People Not In Labor Force K105,292105,638-346-0.3% · 1M106,18958,62798%—Sep 26

Youth Unemployment (16-19) %14.514.1+0.4% · 1M32.86.431%—Sep 26

Sahm Rule (recession) pp0-0.07+0.07pp · 1M9.5-0.44%—Sep 26

The 17 indicators

Unemployment: How many can't find work?

average 8.3 · Healthy

Unemployment rate

Unemployment Rate

8/10Healthy

4.2%Sep 2026 · Sahm 0.00 pts · −0.2 pts vs. normal

Unemployment is 4.2%, 0.2 pts below its normal level (4.4%, CBO), and at its low of the past year. The Sahm rule flags a recession at 0.50.

See scale and last 10 years

The gauge takes the worse of two readings: how far unemployment has risen from its low of the past year (the Sahm rule, which flags a recession at 0.50) and how far it is from the level the CBO considers normal.

Measures: The worse of two: rise from the 1-year low (Sahm) and distance from normal (CBO).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Sahm rule	Above normal (CBO)
10	0.00 or less	−1.0 or less
9	0.01 to 0.10	−0.9 to −0.6
8	0.11 to 0.20	−0.5 to −0.2
7	0.21 to 0.30	−0.1 to 0.2
6	0.31 to 0.40	0.3 to 0.5
5	0.41 to 0.49	0.6 to 0.8
4	0.50 to 0.70	0.9 to 1.2
3	0.71 to 1.00	1.3 to 2.0
2	1.01 to 1.50	2.1 to 3.0
1	more than 1.50	more than 3.0

Sahm rule: 0.00 → 10 · Above normal (CBO): −0.2 → 8. The worse one rules.

BLS (UNRATE), CBO (NROU) y Fed de St. Louis (SAHMREALTIME) · FRED

Number unemployed

Unemployment Level

9/10Healthy

−5.4% over a year7.11M in Sep 2026

There are 7.02M unemployed people, 5.4% fewer than a year ago (3-month average).

See scale and last 10 years

How many people are looking for work and can't find it, versus a year ago (3-month average). The number grows with population; the change does not.

Measures: Number unemployed vs. a year ago, 3-month average (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Number unemployed vs. a year ago, 3-month average (%)
10	−10.0 or less
9	−9.9 to −5.0
8	−4.9 to 0.0
7	0.1 to 5.0
6	5.1 to 10.0
5	10.1 to 15.0
4	15.1 to 20.0
3	20.1 to 30.0
2	30.1 to 50.0
1	more than 50.0

BLS (UNEMPLOY) · FRED

Broad unemployment (U-6)

U6 Unemployment

8/10Healthy

7.6%Sep 2026 · official rate (U-3) 4.2%

Counting part-timers who want more hours and people who gave up looking, broad unemployment is 7.6%.

See scale and last 10 years

Official unemployment plus part-timers who want full-time work and people who recently gave up looking.

Measures: Broad unemployment U-6 (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Broad unemployment U-6 (%)
10	7.0 or less
9	7.1 to 7.5
8	7.6 to 8.0
7	8.1 to 8.5
6	8.6 to 9.0
5	9.1 to 9.5
4	9.6 to 10.0
3	10.1 to 11.5
2	11.6 to 14.0
1	more than 14.0

BLS (U6RATE) · FRED

Youth unemployment (16–19)

Youth Unemployment (16-19)

8/10Healthy

−0.6 pts over a yearSep 2026 · latest 14.5%

Unemployment for ages 16–19 is 13.6% (3-month average), 0.6 pts lower than a year ago. They are the first to stop getting hired.

See scale and last 10 years

The one-year change in unemployment for ages 16–19 (3-month average). They are the first group employers stop hiring.

Measures: Ages 16–19 unemployment vs. a year ago, 3-month average (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Ages 16–19 unemployment vs. a year ago, 3-month average (pts)
10	−1.5 or less
9	−1.4 to −0.8
8	−0.7 to 0.0
7	0.1 to 0.5
6	0.6 to 1.0
5	1.1 to 1.5
4	1.6 to 2.0
3	2.1 to 3.0
2	3.1 to 4.5
1	more than 4.5

BLS (LNS14000012) · FRED

Layoffs: Are people being let go?

average 10.0 · Healthy

Jobless claims

Initial Jobless Claims

10/10Healthy

199K a weekweek ending Oct 10, 2026 · 199K

Jobless claims (4-week average) are 199K, the lowest of the past year.

See scale and last 10 years

How many people file for unemployment benefits each week (4-week average), versus the past year's low. It is the fastest jobs data: out every Thursday.

Measures: Jobless claims, 4-week average: % above 52-week low.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Jobless claims, 4-week average: % above 52-week low
10	5 or less
9	6 to 10
8	11 to 15
7	16 to 20
6	21 to 25
5	26 to 30
4	31 to 40
3	41 to 60
2	61 to 100
1	more than 100

Dpto. de Trabajo (ICSA) · FRED

Continuing claims

Continuing Jobless Claims

10/10Healthy

−11% over a yearweek ending Oct 3, 2026 · 1.71M

1.71M people are collecting benefits, 11% fewer than a year ago (4-week average).

See scale and last 10 years

How many people are still collecting benefits (4-week average) versus a year ago. It rises when laid-off workers struggle to find another job.

Measures: People on benefits vs. a year ago, 4-week average (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	People on benefits vs. a year ago, 4-week average (%)
10	−10 or less
9	−9 to −5
8	−4 to 0
7	1 to 5
6	6 to 10
5	11 to 15
4	16 to 25
3	26 to 40
2	41 to 70
1	more than 70

Dpto. de Trabajo (CCSA) · FRED

Layoffs (JOLTS)

JOLTS Layoffs & Discharges

10/10Healthy

1.0% a monthAug 2026 · layoffs rate 1.0%

Employers lay off 1.0% of workers each month (1.64M people).

See scale and last 10 years

The share of workers laid off each month, from the job openings and turnover survey (JOLTS).

Measures: Layoffs per month, % of workers.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Layoffs per month, % of workers
10	1.1 or less
9	1.2 to 1.2
8	1.3 to 1.3
7	1.4 to 1.4
6	1.5 to 1.5
5	1.6 to 1.6
4	1.7 to 1.7
3	1.8 to 1.9
2	2.0 to 2.3
1	more than 2.3

BLS JOLTS (JTSLDR) · FRED

Hiring: Are jobs being created?

average 6.0 · Caution

Jobs added

Non Farm Payrolls

6/10Caution

+51K a month+29K in Sep 2026 · +0.1 pts vs. population

Employers added 51K jobs a month over three months: a 0.4% annual pace, in step with population growth (0.3%).

See scale and last 10 years

The pace of job creation over the last 3 months, annualized, minus population growth. With immigration slowed, the population barely grows and few jobs are enough to keep up.

Measures: Jobs, 3-month change annualized, minus population growth (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Jobs, 3-month change annualized, minus population growth (pts)
10	1.5 or more
9	1.0 to 1.4
8	0.5 to 0.9
7	0.2 to 0.4
6	0.0 to 0.1
5	−0.3 to −0.1
4	−0.7 to −0.4
3	−1.5 to −0.8
2	−3.0 to −1.6
1	less than −3.0

BLS (PAYEMS) y Censo (POPTHM) · FRED

Openings per unemployed

JOLTS Job Openings

8/10Healthy

1.01 per jobseekerAug 2026 · 7.1M openings / 7.0M unemployed

There are 1.01 job openings per unemployed person (7.1M openings, 7.0M unemployed). In Mar 2022 it hit 2.04.

See scale and last 10 years

How many open jobs there are per jobseeker. It is the labor-market tightness measure the Fed watches most.

Measures: Job openings per unemployed person.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Job openings per unemployed person
10	1.50 or more
9	1.20 to 1.49
8	1.00 to 1.19
7	0.85 to 0.99
6	0.70 to 0.84
5	0.60 to 0.69
4	0.50 to 0.59
3	0.35 to 0.49
2	0.20 to 0.34
1	less than 0.20

BLS JOLTS (JTSJOL) y BLS (UNEMPLOY) · FRED

Hires (JOLTS)

JOLTS Hires

5/10Caution

3.3% a monthAug 2026 · hires rate 3.3%

Employers hire 3.3% of workers each month (5.19M people).

See scale and last 10 years

The share of workers hired in the month. When it falls, people who lose a job have a harder time finding another.

Measures: Hires per month, % of workers.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Hires per month, % of workers
10	4.0 or more
9	3.8 to 3.9
8	3.6 to 3.7
7	3.5 to 3.5
6	3.4 to 3.4
5	3.3 to 3.3
4	3.2 to 3.2
3	3.0 to 3.1
2	2.8 to 2.9
1	less than 2.8

BLS JOLTS (JTSHIR) · FRED

Quits

Job Quits Rate

5/10Caution

1.9% a monthAug 2026 · quits rate

1.9% of workers quit each month. People quit when they have somewhere to go: in Apr 2022 it was 3.0%.

See scale and last 10 years

The share of workers who leave their job voluntarily. People quit when another job is waiting: it measures worker confidence.

Measures: Quits per month, % of workers.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Quits per month, % of workers
10	2.6 or more
9	2.4 to 2.5
8	2.2 to 2.3
7	2.1 to 2.1
6	2.0 to 2.0
5	1.9 to 1.9
4	1.8 to 1.8
3	1.6 to 1.7
2	1.4 to 1.5
1	less than 1.4

BLS JOLTS (JTSQUR) · FRED

Job search: How long to get back to work?

average 5.0 · Caution

Unemployment duration

Unemployment Duration

5/10Caution

24.8 weeksSep 2026 · average, in weeks

The average jobseeker has been looking for 24.8 weeks. In 2019 it was 21.7.

See scale and last 10 years

How many weeks the average jobseeker has been looking. It lags: it rises after a recession ends, while jobs are slow to return.

Measures: Weeks unemployed, average.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Weeks unemployed, average
10	14.0 or less
9	14.1 to 17.0
8	17.1 to 20.0
7	20.1 to 22.0
6	22.1 to 24.0
5	24.1 to 27.0
4	27.1 to 31.0
3	31.1 to 35.0
2	35.1 to 39.0
1	more than 39.0

BLS (UEMPMEAN) · FRED

Long-term unemployment

Long-Term Unemployed (27+ wks)

5/10Caution

27.3% of the unemployedSep 2026 · 1.94M of 7.11M unemployed

27.3% of the unemployed have been looking for over six months (1.94M people). In 2019 it was 21.1%.

See scale and last 10 years

The share of the unemployed looking for more than 27 weeks (about six months). The longer out, the harder to get back.

Measures: Unemployed 27+ weeks, % of all unemployed.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Unemployed 27+ weeks, % of all unemployed
10	15.0 or less
9	15.1 to 18.0
8	18.1 to 21.0
7	21.1 to 23.0
6	23.1 to 25.0
5	25.1 to 28.0
4	28.1 to 32.0
3	32.1 to 37.0
2	37.1 to 42.0
1	more than 42.0

BLS (UEMP27OV / UNEMPLOY) · FRED

Pay: Is pay rising?

average 6.5 · Caution

Hourly pay

Avg Hourly Earnings YoY

7/10Caution

+3.0% over a year$37.81 an hour in Sep 2026

Hourly pay is up 3.0% from a year ago, the slowest since May 2021.

See scale and last 10 years

How much average hourly pay rose over a year, before inflation. A strong job market forces employers to pay more.

Measures: Hourly pay vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Hourly pay vs. a year ago (%)
10	4.5 or more
9	4.0 to 4.4
8	3.5 to 3.9
7	3.0 to 3.4
6	2.7 to 2.9
5	2.4 to 2.6
4	2.1 to 2.3
3	1.9 to 2.0
2	1.7 to 1.8
1	less than 1.7

BLS (CES0500000003) · FRED

Real typical pay

Real Median Weekly Earnings YoY

6/10Caution

+0.5% over a year$378 a week in 1982–84 dollars, Q2 2026

After inflation, the typical weekly paycheck is up 0.5% from a year ago (Q2 2026).

See scale and last 10 years

The typical (median) worker's weekly pay after inflation, versus a year ago. Note: it rises in recessions because the lowest-paid are laid off first.

Measures: Median weekly pay after inflation vs. a year ago (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Median weekly pay after inflation vs. a year ago (%)
10	2.5 or more
9	2.0 to 2.4
8	1.5 to 1.9
7	1.0 to 1.4
6	0.5 to 0.9
5	0.0 to 0.4
4	−0.5 to −0.1
3	−1.5 to −0.6
2	−3.0 to −1.6
1	less than −3.0

BLS (LES1252881600Q) · FRED

Outside the labor force: Are people giving up?

average 9.5 · Healthy

Labor force participation

Labor Force Participation

10/10Healthy

61.8% (25–54: 83.7%)Sep 2026 · overall 61.8% · ages 25–54 83.7%

Overall participation (61.8%) is falling because the population is aging. For ages 25–54, which age doesn't distort, it is 83.7%, vs. its 84.6% record (Jan 1999).

See scale and last 10 years

Overall participation is falling because there are more retirees. To tell whether people stop looking for lack of jobs, the gauge uses ages 25–54, which aging does not distort.

Measures: Participation, ages 25–54 (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Participation, ages 25–54 (%)
10	83.5 or more
9	83.0 to 83.4
8	82.5 to 82.9
7	82.2 to 82.4
6	81.9 to 82.1
5	81.6 to 81.8
4	81.3 to 81.5
3	81.0 to 81.2
2	80.5 to 80.9
1	less than 80.5

BLS (CIVPART y LNS11300060) · FRED

Outside the labor force

People Not In Labor Force

9/10Healthy

5.5% want a jobSep 2026 · 5.79M of 105.3M

Of the 105.3M people outside the labor force, 5.8M (5.5%) want a job now.

See scale and last 10 years

Of everyone neither working nor looking, the share who say they want a job now. If it rises, there is hidden unemployment the official rate misses.

Measures: People outside the labor force who want a job now, %.

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	People outside the labor force who want a job now, %
10	5.3 or less
9	5.4 to 5.6
8	5.7 to 5.9
7	6.0 to 6.2
6	6.3 to 6.5
5	6.6 to 6.8
4	6.9 to 7.1
3	7.2 to 7.5
2	7.6 to 8.0
1	more than 8.0

BLS (LNS15000000 y NILFWJN) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 2001

Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds. It starts in 2001 because openings, hires, quits and layoffs are published from December 2000. Gray bands are recessions.

AFeb 2001 · jobless claims jump two months before the recession: red
B2008–09 · Great Recession: red from June 2008, when the Sahm rule and jobless claims trigger together
C2009–2012 · the recession ends in June 2009, but unemployment hits 10% in October and stays above 8% until September 2012: the gauge stays red until late 2012
D2020 · COVID: unemployment jumps to 14.8% in one month
ESummer 2024 · the Sahm rule triggers with no layoffs behind it: the gauge stays yellow and there was no recession
FToday · score 8: hardly anyone is being laid off, but hardly anyone is being hired

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. Values are rounded as shown before comparing.
Each block is the average of its indicators, and the score is the average of the six blocks, rounded (0.5 rounds down). So unemployment, with four indicators, weighs no more than pay, with two.
Turning-point alarms rule. The score is at most 4 if jobless claims are more than 30% above their 1-year low, or if the Sahm rule triggers while claims are more than 20% above it.
An indicator without data is left out. There was no household survey in October 2025 because of the government shutdown: 3-month averages use the two months available.

Deliberate choices

Levels that grow with population (unemployed, out of the labor force, hires) are measured as changes, shares or rates, not headcounts.
Overall participation falls with aging: the gauge uses ages 25–54. Jobs added are compared with population growth, which has barely grown since 2025.
The Sahm rule is FRED's real-time series. It has its own row in this tab, showing this same reading: it is not counted twice.
It describes the job market from the latest release. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: BLS (unemployment, payrolls, pay, JOLTS and household survey), Department of Labor (jobless claims), CBO (normal unemployment), Census (population) and St. Louis Fed (Sahm rule), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.