Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales

3.99M a yearSep 2026Score 3/10 · Alert

3.99M existing homes sell a year: the market is frozen.

Existing homes sold, at an annual rate: nine in ten transactions. In 2015–2019 about 5.4 million a year. FRED only publishes the last year.

Source: NAR · API de arturillo.com (FRED solo publica 12 meses)

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Housing tab score

7/10Caution

average 6.70 · close to dropping to 6

The market is frozen: the mortgage takes 31.2% of a typical paycheck, 3.99M existing homes sell a year and builders are gloomy (32). The good news: prices and rents are cooling and almost nobody is missing payments.

The 4 blocks

MortgagesCan people afford the mortgage?7.0 ConstructionIs anyone building?5.2 TransactionsAre homes changing hands?5.3 Prices and rentsAre prices and rents rising?9.3

What would turn it red

Eight of the fifteen indicators red at once. Today: 4.
Prices starting to fall versus a year ago (today +1.9%) with delinquencies rising above 3% (today 1.86%): that is how 2007 began.
The mortgage payment rising above 35% of typical income (today 31.2%).

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

Existing Home Sales

+60

+1.53%

-140

-3.39%

-20

-0.50%

-90

-2.21%

Last

3,990 K

3,930 K

All-time: 3,930 – 4,270 K · since Sep 25 · now at 18% of that range

Existing Home Sales stands at 3,990K (Sep 1, 2026), up from 3,930K on Aug 1, 2026. Since Sep 1, 2025 it has moved -2.2%.

Loading chart…

Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

30Y Mortgage Rate %7.47.40% · 1W18.62.630%—Oct 26

30Y Mortgage Rate (Daily) %7.337.45-0.12% · 1D18.42.829%—Oct 26

Housing Starts K1,2751,309-34-2.6% · 1M2,49447840%—Aug 26

Building Permits K1,4031,433-30-2.1% · 1M2,41951347%—Aug 26

New Home Sales K684643+41+6.4% · 1M1,38927037%—Aug 26

Existing Home Sales K3,9903,930+60+1.5% · 1M4,2703,93018%—Sep 26

Home Prices YoY (Case-Shiller) %▲ 20251.91.6+0.3% · 1M20.8-12.844%—Jul 26

Months' Supply of New Homes months8.59-0.5months · 1M12.23.358%—Aug 26

Active Listings K▲ 20191,161.61,140+21.6+1.9% · 1M1,468.6346.573%—Sep 26

Mortgage Delinquency Rate %1.861.88-0.02% · 3M11.51.45%—Apr 26

Typical Asking Rent (Zillow) $1,9481,944.2+3.8+0.2% · 1M1,9481,140.6100%—Aug 26

Asking Rents YoY (Zillow) %▲ 20252.52.3+0.2% · 1M15.31.85%—Aug 26

NAHB Housing Market Index idx3235-3idx · 1M90829%—Sep 26

MBA Purchase Index ▼ 2025139.3145.1-5.8-4.0% · 1W529.353.518%—Oct 26

Pending Home Sales YoY %▼ 2025-4.7-2.2-2.5% · 1M52.4-36.836%—Aug 26

The 15 indicators

Mortgages: Can people afford the mortgage?

average 7.0 · Caution

Mortgage payment burden

30Y Mortgage Rate

5/10Caution

7.40%week of Oct 8, 2026 · median price $410,700 · 2025 income $87,460

With mortgages at 7.40%, the payment on a typical new home takes 31.2% of median household income (22–24% in 2019).

See scale and last 10 years

The monthly payment on a 30-year loan at Freddie Mac's rate, for 80% of the median new-home price, as a share of median household income. In 2012–2021 it was about 21–25%; in 1985, 40%.

Measures: Mortgage payment / median income (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Mortgage payment / median income (%)
10	22.0 or less
9	22.1 to 24.0
8	24.1 to 26.0
7	26.1 to 28.0
6	28.1 to 30.0
5	30.1 to 32.0
4	32.1 to 35.0
3	35.1 to 38.0
2	38.1 to 42.0
1	more than 42.0

Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US), Census (MSPUS, MEHOINUSA646N) · FRED

Daily mortgage rate

30Y Mortgage Rate (Daily)

6/10Caution▲ above normal

7.33%Oct 15, 2026 · +1.06 pts over a year

The 30-year mortgage is at 7.33%, 1.06 pts higher than a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

The daily 30-year mortgage rate. Speed matters here: a big rise in a year freezes purchases at once; a big drop revives them.

Measures: Change in the mortgage rate over a year (pts).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.00 to 0.30	−0.30 to −0.01
9	0.31 to 0.50	−0.50 to −0.31
8	0.51 to 0.75	−0.75 to −0.51
7	0.76 to 1.00	−1.00 to −0.76
6	1.01 to 1.25	−1.25 to −1.01
5	1.26 to 1.50	−1.50 to −1.26
4	1.51 to 1.90	−1.90 to −1.51
3	1.91 to 2.40	−2.40 to −1.91
2	2.41 to 3.20	−3.20 to −2.41
1	more than 3.20	less than −3.20

Tipo diario a 30 años · API de arturillo.com · FRED

Mortgage delinquency

Mortgage Delinquency Rate

10/10Healthy

1.86%Q2 2026

1.86% of mortgages are behind on payments: people keep paying.

See scale and last 10 years

The share of bank-held mortgages 30+ days past due. It peaked at 11.5% in 2010.

Measures: Mortgages 30+ days delinquent (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Mortgages 30+ days delinquent (%)
10	2.00 or less
9	2.01 to 2.50
8	2.51 to 3.00
7	3.01 to 3.50
6	3.51 to 4.00
5	4.01 to 5.00
4	5.01 to 6.50
3	6.51 to 8.00
2	8.01 to 10.00
1	more than 10.00

Fed (DRSFRMACBS) · FRED

Construction: Is anyone building?

average 5.2 · Caution

Housing starts

Housing Starts

6/10Caution

1,275K a yearAug 2026 · −1.9% over a year (3 months)

Builders are starting 1.9% fewer homes than a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

Homes whose construction began in the month, at an annual rate. The 3-month average versus a year ago.

Measures: Starts, 3-month average vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Starts, 3-month average vs. a year ago (%)
10	10.0 or more
9	5.0 to 9.9
8	2.0 to 4.9
7	0.0 to 1.9
6	−3.0 to −0.1
5	−6.0 to −3.1
4	−10.0 to −6.1
3	−15.0 to −10.1
2	−25.0 to −15.1
1	less than −25.0

Census (HOUST) · FRED

Building permits

Building Permits

7/10Caution

1,403K a yearAug 2026 · +1.5% over a year (3 months)

Permits are up 1.5% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

Permits to build homes. They lead starts by a month or two.

Measures: Permits, 3-month average vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Permits, 3-month average vs. a year ago (%)
10	10.0 or more
9	5.0 to 9.9
8	2.0 to 4.9
7	0.0 to 1.9
6	−3.0 to −0.1
5	−6.0 to −3.1
4	−10.0 to −6.1
3	−15.0 to −10.1
2	−25.0 to −15.1
1	less than −25.0

Census (PERMIT) · FRED

New home sales

New Home Sales

6/10Caution

684K a yearAug 2026 · −0.6% over a year (3 months)

New home sales are down 0.6% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

Newly built homes sold in the month, at an annual rate. The 3-month average versus a year ago.

Measures: New home sales, 3-month average vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	New home sales, 3-month average vs. a year ago (%)
10	15.0 or more
9	8.0 to 14.9
8	3.0 to 7.9
7	0.0 to 2.9
6	−4.0 to −0.1
5	−8.0 to −4.1
4	−12.0 to −8.1
3	−20.0 to −12.1
2	−30.0 to −20.1
1	less than −30.0

Census (HSN1F) · FRED

New home supply

Months' Supply of New Homes

4/10Alert

8.5 monthsAug 2026

There are 8.5 months of new homes for sale: too many.

See scale and last 10 years

How many months it would take to sell the new homes for sale at the current pace. Above 7–8 there is excess supply and builders pull back; it hit 12.2 in 2009.

Measures: Months of supply at the current sales pace.

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Months of supply at the current sales pace
10	5.0 or less
9	5.1 to 5.5
8	5.6 to 6.0
7	6.1 to 6.5
6	6.6 to 7.0
5	7.1 to 7.5
4	7.6 to 8.5
3	8.6 to 9.5
2	9.6 to 11.0
1	more than 11.0

Census (MSACSR) · FRED

Builder confidence

NAHB Housing Market Index

3/10Alert

32Sep 2026

Builders are at 32: pessimistic (50 is neutral).

See scale and last 10 years

A survey of home builders: above 50 means they see the market as good. It hit 8 in 2009.

Measures: NAHB index (50 = neutral).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	NAHB index (50 = neutral)
10	70 or more
9	62 to 69
8	55 to 61
7	50 to 54
6	45 to 49
5	40 to 44
4	35 to 39
3	30 to 34
2	22 to 29
1	less than 22

NAHB / Wells Fargo · API de arturillo.com · FRED

Transactions: Are homes changing hands?

average 5.3 · Caution

Existing home sales

Existing Home Sales

3/10Alert

3.99M a yearSep 2026

3.99M existing homes sell a year: the market is frozen.

See scale and last 10 years

Existing homes sold, at an annual rate: nine in ten transactions. In 2015–2019 about 5.4 million a year. FRED only publishes the last year.

Measures: Existing home sales, annual rate (thousands).

Sep 2025last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Existing home sales, annual rate (thousands)
10	5,600 or more
9	5,300 to 5,599
8	5,000 to 5,299
7	4,700 to 4,999
6	4,500 to 4,699
5	4,300 to 4,499
4	4,100 to 4,299
3	3,900 to 4,099
2	3,700 to 3,899
1	less than 3,700

NAR · API de arturillo.com (FRED solo publica 12 meses) · FRED

Pending home sales

Pending Home Sales YoY

5/10Caution

−4.7% over a yearAug 2026

Purchase contracts are down 4.7% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

Signed contracts not yet closed, versus a year ago. They lead existing sales by a month or two.

Measures: Pending sales vs. a year ago (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Pending sales vs. a year ago (%)
10	10.0 or more
9	5.0 to 9.9
8	2.0 to 4.9
7	0.0 to 1.9
6	−3.0 to −0.1
5	−6.0 to −3.1
4	−10.0 to −6.1
3	−15.0 to −10.1
2	−25.0 to −15.1
1	less than −25.0

NAR · API de arturillo.com · FRED

Mortgage applications

MBA Purchase Index

3/10Alert

139.3week of Oct 9, 2026

Purchase mortgage applications are down 15.1% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

Weekly mortgage applications to buy a home (Mortgage Bankers Association), the fastest housing data. The 4-week average versus a year ago.

Measures: Purchase applications, 4-week average vs. a year ago (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsOct 2026

Score	Purchase applications, 4-week average vs. a year ago (%)
10	15.0 or more
9	8.0 to 14.9
8	3.0 to 7.9
7	0.0 to 2.9
6	−4.0 to −0.1
5	−8.0 to −4.1
4	−12.0 to −8.1
3	−20.0 to −12.1
2	−30.0 to −20.1
1	less than −30.0

MBA · API de arturillo.com · FRED

Active listings

Active Listings

10/10Healthy

1.16MSep 2026

Listings are 2.8% below pre-pandemic: supply is back to normal.

See scale and last 10 years

Homes listed for sale versus the 2017–2019 pre-pandemic average. Far below means a shortage and soaring prices (2022: −70%); far above means a glut.

Measures: Listings vs. the 2017–2019 average (%).

Oct 2016last 10 yearsSep 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	0.0 to 8.0	−8.0 to −0.1
9	8.1 to 15.0	−15.0 to −8.1
8	15.1 to 22.0	−22.0 to −15.1
7	22.1 to 30.0	−30.0 to −22.1
6	30.1 to 38.0	−38.0 to −30.1
5	38.1 to 46.0	−46.0 to −38.1
4	46.1 to 55.0	−55.0 to −46.1
3	55.1 to 65.0	−65.0 to −55.1
2	65.1 to 80.0	−80.0 to −65.1
1	more than 80.0	less than −80.0

Realtor.com (ACTLISCOUUS) · FRED

Prices and rents: Are prices and rents rising?

average 9.3 · Healthy

Home prices (Case-Shiller)

Home Prices YoY (Case-Shiller)

9/10Healthy▼ below normal

+1.9% over a yearJul 2026

Homes are worth 1.9% more than a year ago: less than inflation, so they are falling in real terms.

See scale and last 10 years

How much home prices rose over a year. Healthy is roughly wage growth (4%): much more is a bubble and declines hurt owners and banks.

Measures: Home prices vs. a year ago (%; normal is 4%).

Aug 2016last 10 yearsJul 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	4.0 to 6.0	2.5 to 3.9
9	6.1 to 8.0	1.0 to 2.4
8	8.1 to 10.0	−0.5 to 0.9
7	10.1 to 12.0	−2.0 to −0.6
6	12.1 to 14.0	−3.5 to −2.1
5	14.1 to 16.0	−5.0 to −3.6
4	16.1 to 19.0	−6.5 to −5.1
3	19.1 to 22.0	−8.0 to −6.6
2	22.1 to 26.0	−10.0 to −8.1
1	more than 26.0	less than −10.0

S&P Case-Shiller (CSUSHPINSA) · FRED

New rents vs. CPI

Typical Asking Rent (Zillow)

9/10Healthy

$1,948 a monthAug 2026 · Zillow +2.5% over a year

New rents are rising 0.5 pts less than CPI shelter: shelter inflation should keep easing.

See scale and last 10 years

Advertised rent growth today (Zillow) minus CPI shelter growth. Listings lead CPI by about a year: if they rise less than CPI, shelter inflation will keep falling.

Measures: Zillow asking rent − CPI shelter, over a year (pts).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Zillow asking rent − CPI shelter, over a year (pts)
10	−1.0 or less
9	−0.9 to 0.0
8	0.1 to 1.0
7	1.1 to 2.0
6	2.1 to 3.0
5	3.1 to 4.0
4	4.1 to 5.0
3	5.1 to 7.0
2	7.1 to 10.0
1	more than 10.0

Zillow (ZORI) · API de arturillo.com, y BLS · FRED

Asking rents

Asking Rents YoY (Zillow)

10/10Healthy

+2.5% over a yearAug 2026

Advertised rents are up 2.5% from a year ago.

See scale and last 10 years

How much advertised rents rose over a year (Zillow). Healthy is about 3.5%: in 2021–22 they topped 15%.

Measures: Asking rent vs. a year ago (%; normal is 3.5%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Above	Below
10	3.5 to 5.0	2.0 to 3.4
9	5.1 to 6.5	0.5 to 1.9
8	6.6 to 8.0	−0.5 to 0.4
7	8.1 to 9.5	−1.5 to −0.6
6	9.6 to 11.0	−2.5 to −1.6
5	11.1 to 12.5	−3.5 to −2.6
4	12.6 to 14.5	−4.5 to −3.6
3	14.6 to 16.5	−5.5 to −4.6
2	16.6 to 19.5	−6.5 to −5.6
1	more than 19.5	less than −6.5

Zillow (ZORI) · API de arturillo.com · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1991

Each month's score, with today's rules and thresholds. Zillow, Realtor.com and pending sales start late: the score uses the indicators available, at least half. Gray bands are recessions.

A2005 · bubble: home prices rise 14.5% a year
B2009 · home prices fall 12.8% in a year and builders mark 8
C2010 · delinquencies reach 11.5%
D2022 · supply is short (−70% listings) and advertised rents rise 15%
E2023 · a 7.8% mortgage takes 39% of a typical paycheck
FToday · score 7: the market is frozen

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. Prices and rents are two-sided (rising too fast is a bubble; falling is bad too); so are listings (too few or too many).
Each block is the average of its indicators and the score is the average of the four blocks, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
If eight of the fifteen are red, the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

The mortgage rate is measured as the payment versus income: 7% in 1995 did not weigh the same as today.
The payment uses the median new-home price (Census) and the prior year's median income, the latest published.
Starts, permits and sales use the 3-month average versus a year ago, because of seasonality and noise.
CPI shelter is the same measure as in the Prices tab.
It describes the housing market from the latest data. It does not forecast prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: Freddie Mac (mortgages), Census (starts, permits, new sales, prices and income), NAR (existing and pending sales), S&P Case-Shiller, Realtor.com, Zillow, NAHB, MBA, Fed (delinquencies) and BLS, via FRED and arturillo.com. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.