GDP (Real)

GDP vs. potential

+1.4% vs. potentialQ2 2026Score 9/10 · Healthy

The economy is producing 1.4% more than the CBO estimates it can without overheating.

Real GDP is almost always at a record, so its level alone says little. The gauge compares it with potential GDP from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO): what the country can produce at full employment without overheating.

Source: BEA (GDPC1) y CBO (GDPPOT) · FRED GDPC1

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GDP tab score

8/10Healthy

average 8.40

The economy is growing at a solid pace: 2.2% last quarter and 2.2% over a year, and households keep spending (3.9% annual pace).

The 5 indicators

Quarterly growth+2.2% annualized8 Growth over a year+2.2% over a year8 GDP vs. potential+1.4% vs. potential9 Per person+1.9% over a year8 Household spending+3.9% annual pace9

What would turn it red

Three of the five indicators red at once. Today: none.
One quarter below +0.5% annualized turns its gauge red (today +2.2%), but alone it is not enough: it happened twice in 2025 and the score stayed at 7.
Household spending below a 0.5% annual pace over six months. Today: 3.9%.

The score is the number of bars lit: 10 is healthiest and 1 is worst. The orange spark marks where it is today.

GDP (Real)

+133.63

+0.55%

+282.53

+1.17%

+523.45

+2.19%

Last

24,408 $B

24,274.4 $B

All-time: 2,172.4 – 24,408 $B · since Jan 47 · now at 100% of that range

GDP (Real) stands at 24,408$B (Apr 1, 2026), up from 24,274.4$B on Jan 1, 2026. Since Apr 1, 2025 it has moved +2.2%.

Total inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced — the size of the economy.

Loading chart…

Y axis zoomed to the selected range, so week-to-week moves are visible. It does not start at zero.

Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Sort:

IndicatorLastPreviousChangeHighestLowestRange %GaugeDate

GDP Growth Rate %2.22.5-0.3% · 3M34.9-2848%—Apr 26

GDP Annual Growth Rate %2.22.6-0.4% · 3M13.4-7.446%—Apr 26

GDP (Real) $B24,40824,274.4+133.63+0.6% · 3M24,4082,172.4100%—Apr 26

GDP per Capita (Real) $71,21270,857+355+0.5% · 3M71,21215,032100%—Apr 26

Real Consumer Spending $B16,955.316,862.5+92.8+0.6% · 1M16,955.311,068100%—Aug 26

The 5 indicators

Quarterly growth

GDP Growth Rate

8/10Healthy

+2.2% annualizedQ2 2026, annualized

GDP grew at a 2.2% annualized pace in Q2 2026, in line with its potential pace (2.2%, CBO).

See scale and last 10 years

How much real GDP grew last quarter, at an annual rate. It is the growth figure that moves markets most, and the noisiest: one quarter can be skewed by trade or a government shutdown.

Measures: Last quarter's growth, annualized (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Last quarter's growth, annualized (%)
10	4.0 or more
9	3.0 to 3.9
8	2.0 to 2.9
7	1.5 to 1.9
6	1.0 to 1.4
5	0.5 to 0.9
4	0.0 to 0.4
3	−1.0 to −0.1
2	−3.0 to −1.1
1	less than −3.0

BEA (A191RL1Q225SBEA) · FRED

Growth over a year

GDP Annual Growth Rate

8/10Healthy

+2.2% over a yearQ2 2026 vs. a year earlier

The economy grew 2.2% over the past year. Its average since 2000 is 2.2%.

See scale and last 10 years

How much real GDP grew versus the same quarter a year earlier. It moves more slowly than the quarterly figure but is not fooled by one odd quarter.

Measures: Growth vs. the same quarter a year earlier (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Growth vs. the same quarter a year earlier (%)
10	3.5 or more
9	2.8 to 3.4
8	2.0 to 2.7
7	1.5 to 1.9
6	1.0 to 1.4
5	0.5 to 0.9
4	0.0 to 0.4
3	−1.0 to −0.1
2	−2.5 to −1.1
1	less than −2.5

BEA (A191RO1Q156NBEA) · FRED

GDP vs. potential

GDP (Real)

9/10Healthy

+1.4% vs. potential$24.41T real GDP vs. $24.07T potential

The economy is producing 1.4% more than the CBO estimates it can without overheating.

See scale and last 10 years

Measures: Real GDP vs. its potential (CBO), %.

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Real GDP vs. its potential (CBO), %
10	2.0 or more
9	1.0 to 1.9
8	0.0 to 0.9
7	−0.7 to −0.1
6	−1.5 to −0.8
5	−2.2 to −1.6
4	−3.0 to −2.3
3	−4.5 to −3.1
2	−6.5 to −4.6
1	less than −6.5

BEA (GDPC1) y CBO (GDPPOT) · FRED

Per person

GDP per Capita (Real)

8/10Healthy

+1.9% over a year$71,212 per person vs. $69,881 a year earlier (2017 dollars)

Output per person is up 1.9% from a year ago; population grew 0.3%.

See scale and last 10 years

Real GDP divided by population, versus a year ago. It separates growth from having more people from growth from producing more per person.

Measures: Per-person growth over a year (%).

Jul 2016last 10 yearsApr 2026

Score	Per-person growth over a year (%)
10	2.8 or more
9	2.0 to 2.7
8	1.3 to 1.9
7	0.8 to 1.2
6	0.3 to 0.7
5	−0.2 to 0.2
4	−0.7 to −0.3
3	−1.5 to −0.8
2	−3.0 to −1.6
1	less than −3.0

BEA (A939RX0Q048SBEA) · FRED

Household spending

Real Consumer Spending

9/10Healthy

+3.9% annual pace$16.96T a year in Aug 2026 vs. $16.63T in Feb 2026 (2017 dollars)

After inflation, household spending is running at a 3.9% annual pace over the last six months (through Aug 2026).

See scale and last 10 years

Household spending after inflation, about two-thirds of GDP. The gauge uses the last six months at an annual rate: it arrives monthly, ahead of GDP.

Measures: Real household spending, 6-month change annualized (%).

Sep 2016last 10 yearsAug 2026

Score	Real household spending, 6-month change annualized (%)
10	4.0 or more
9	3.0 to 3.9
8	2.0 to 2.9
7	1.5 to 1.9
6	1.0 to 1.4
5	0.5 to 0.9
4	0.0 to 0.4
3	−1.0 to −0.1
2	−3.0 to −1.1
1	less than −3.0

BEA (PCEC96; antes de 2007, DPCERA3M086SBEA) · FRED

If this gauge had existed since 1960

Each quarter's score, with today's rules and thresholds. Gray bands are recessions (NBER).

A1974–75 · oil crisis: the score falls to 2
B1980–82 · back-to-back recessions as Volcker's Fed raises rates
C2008–09 · Great Recession: three quarters in a row at 2
D2020 · COVID: the score falls to 1
E2022 · two negative quarters were first reported and recession talk spread; revised data leave only one and the score never fell below 7
F2025 · two weak quarters (+0.1% and +0.2%) and the score stayed at 7
GToday · score 8: the economy is growing at a solid pace

How it is calculated

The rules

Each indicator scores 1 to 10 from its table. Values are rounded to one decimal, as shown, before comparing.
The score is the average of the five, rounded (0.5 rounds down).
If three of the five are red at once, the score is at most 4.
An indicator without data is left out of the average.

Deliberate choices

Levels that are almost always at records (real GDP, per person, spending) are measured as growth or, for real GDP, as distance from potential.
GDP far above potential is not counted as a problem here: that is inflation, which the Prices tab tracks.
With these rules, since 1960 78% of recession quarters are red and none green; in expansions 2% are red, always right after a recession or in the 2011 soft patch.
It describes the economy from the latest release. GDP arrives a quarter late and is revised: it does not forecast recessions or prices and is not a buy or sell signal.

Sources: BEA (GDP, GDP per capita and household spending) and CBO (potential GDP), via FRED. Recessions: NBER. Not investment advice.