LESSON 1 / 4 · 6 MIN
Spot ETFs: the new front door
Read daily ETF flows and know what they measure.
Since 11 January 2024, US investors can buy bitcoin through spot ETFs in a normal brokerage account (ether ETFs followed in July 2024). When investors put more money into an ETF than they take out, the fund creates new shares and buys bitcoin. That net difference is the 'flow'.
Key idea
A positive flow is real demand for bitcoin spot: someone paid dollars and the fund had to buy. It is one of the few crypto numbers that measures money, not positions.
Common mistake
Not every inflow is a bet on the price. Part of it is the basis trade: funds buy the ETF and sell CME futures at the same time to earn the difference, with no view on direction. You will see it again in the COT lesson.
Tip
Flows are reported after the US close, and some issuers report the next morning. A 'flow day' is usually one day behind the price.
On the site · /etf-flows
Open /etf-flows and look at the last ten days: how many were positive, and which fund led?
Open it on the site →Check yourself
A fund buys $500M of a bitcoin ETF and sells $500M of CME futures. What is its bet?