FED ODDS FLIP TO 94% HOLD THIS WEEK

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. Traders now put the odds of a pause at Wednesday's meeting at 94%, up from 83% just five days ago, while betting markets assign a 79% chance of another hike in December. The $TLT bond market is pricing a one-meeting truce, not an end to the tightening cycle.