MARKET PUSHES FED HIKE BET TO DECEMBER

Traders are no longer betting on a second Federal Reserve rate hike this week. Polymarket prices just a 5.5% chance the Fed raises rates at Wednesday's meeting, down from 66% in late September, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signaling another move at an IMF appearance this week. The same contracts now put a 76% probability on a quarter-point hike in December instead. The dollar ($DXY) is trading on that repricing, with the Fed's September hike, its first in three years, looking for now like a one-off.